geopolitics

During his state visit to Beijing, French President Emmanuel Macron issued one of his strongest warnings yet to China. If trade imbalances between the European Union and China fail to improve, the bloc may be forced to introduce new tariffs on Chinese goods.
Macron has long tried to position himself as a leader of a unified European approach toward Beijing — firm but not confrontational. Analysts point out that China’s growing assertiveness is testing Europe’s economic, security, and diplomatic boundaries, pushing EU member states to protect their markets and strategic interests.
Noah Barkin of the Rhodium Group noted that Macron faces a difficult balancing act: he must signal to China that Europe will respond to rising economic and security risks, while avoiding a spiral that could result in a full-scale trade war.

“This is not an easy message to deliver,” Barkin said.

Europe signals it will no longer tolerate widening trade imbalances
In an interview with Les Echos, Macron said he stressed to Chinese officials that today’s global trade dynamics are “unsustainable.” According to him, the current situation harms not only Europe, but also China itself, as Beijing “is killing its own customers by no longer importing much from us.”
Macron added that if China does not take corrective action, Europe will have to respond:
“I told them that if they do not react, we Europeans will be forced, in the coming months, to take strong measures similar to those of the United States — such as imposing tariffs on Chinese products.”

European industry under pressure as deficit grows and risks intensify
The EU’s trade deficit with China has surged by almost 60% since 2019, while France and other major EU economies continue to record deeper negative balances. Macron has long argued for a stronger protective framework for European producers overwhelmed by cheaper Chinese imports.
He warned that U.S. protectionism and Chinese industrial power are hitting the very foundation of Europe’s innovation and manufacturing model. “This is the worst-case scenario,” he said. “We have become the adjustment market.”
Economists caution that a persistent imbalance could significantly dampen Eurozone growth. Industrial powerhouses such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain face vulnerabilities as an influx of cheaper Chinese goods threatens profit margins and the survival of their manufacturing sectors.
The risks extend beyond trade. Prolonged deficits weaken the ability of European companies to invest in research and development, potentially causing Europe to fall behind in high-tech industries. Some forecasts warn that, without correction, Eurozone GDP growth may be up to 0.5% lower over the next decade.

Macron also offers a cooperative path: open markets and attract Chinese investment
Despite the tough rhetoric, Macron emphasized that confrontation is not the goal. Instead, he promoted a strategy focused on rebalance and cooperation. His proposals include:
easing restrictions on European exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipmentreducing Chinese limits on rare-earth exportsencouraging Chinese companies to invest directly in Europe
Macron argued that deeper partnerships with Chinese firms could modernize key industrial sectors, support sustainable development, and accelerate technology transfer.
He framed the strategy as a “win-win” opportunity: Europe receives capital and high-tech cooperation, while Chinese investors gain access to skilled labor and stable markets.

Conclusion
Europe is approaching a decisive moment. If China does not address widening trade imbalances, Brussels may resort to tariffs — a step that once seemed unlikely but is now increasingly realistic. Macron is navigating a narrow path between firm defense of European industry and maintaining diplomatic space for cooperation.
As China’s economic weight continues to grow, the coming months will determine whether the EU–China relationship leans toward renewed partnership or escalating confrontation.

#Geopolitics , #china , #economy , #Tariffs , #Eu

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