🎯 Gold selling scenario: Is the profit-taking moment approaching?
The last week of January may mark a period when gold reaches a short-term peak. This is the time for investors to prepare a scenario to reduce holdings after a series of positive news appears in quick succession.
🔹 4 factors are "pushing" gold prices up:
Increasing tension between the US and Iran, high risk of conflict.
The Fed may support the Yen, causing the USD to weaken.
The risk of a US government "shutdown" – strong safe-haven sentiment.
US-Canada trade tensions (limited impact).
⚠️ But the biggest risk is the FOMC:
The Fed is almost certain not to cut interest rates, and Chairman Powell may signal a "hawkish" stance. This could cause gold to adjust after all the positive news is released.
💡 Two scenarios to watch for next week:
1. Super explosion scenario: Gold increases by 50–80 USD/day, widespread FOMO → strong selling, full profit-taking.
2. Distribution scenario: Prices move sideways or weaken despite positive news → gradual selling, reducing holdings.
📊 Personal opinion: The early February period may open up a new adjustment phase; those who have profits should consider exit strategies.
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