Feds Cut TLDR macro
1. rate cut 25bps.
2. start buying T-bills around 40b usd/month.
3. Want to loosen financial conditions without calling it QE
Macro direction: buy T-bills + lower interest rates = increased liquidity, decreased funding costs, reduced credit pressure.
Risk assets are supported by the bitcoin bounce to 92k, investors are forced to look for assets with longer durations.
In 2026 they will have to cut even more if the US economy weakens; if the economy is strong, the market will price in QE.
I think interest rates will drop in 2026, fiscal deficit will remain large, and liquidity will be loosened.
People who save in bank deposits will be disadvantaged while those buying bitcoin will benefit.
Powell's term ends in May 2026, Trump already has a new candidate. He wants these low interest rates; I've said from the beginning when Trump was elected he had an agenda for low interest rates, he wants the Fed's candidate, whoever it is, to aggressively cut interest rates and feels Powell is too tight.
Kevin Hasset could possibly replace Powell; he is much more dovish than Powell, if he is the replacement, bitcoin could soar.
The Chinese economy will slow down, you will see it in MSCI China 2026, the US will continue to run a deficit, this is Kuwait and UAE preparing to buy bitcoin.
#timothyronald