peter_thiel
--
All altcoins cannot rise? Can only play Meme?
1. Who are the people in the currency circle?
At present, if the people in the currency circle are stratified, 95% are speculators, and they all come to make money - the degree of intensity may be different.
It can even be subdivided. A very high proportion of this 95% comes to make quick money and big money - that is, "I come to the currency circle to turn over, not double."
This is very different from the stock market.
Understanding this difference understands the underlying logic of the currency circle, and understands that no matter how good the currency is, as long as it suddenly stops rising, people will leave it - no matter what currency it is.
2. Why is meme popular?
Meme coins are simple and have better release. Basically, everyone directly gambles in a relatively fair environment. Its greatest value is actually a "buy me, I may rise 100x."
If all speculative behaviors are like betting in a casino, meme is just one of the gambling tables.
This gambling table should be relatively fair and transparent. All the rules are centered around pulling and smashing the market. People are willing to accept the loss. People have a high tolerance for memes that return to zero or rugged.
On the meme gambling table, the dealer or community only needs to find a way to show some unique narratives and present some essential things, such as fairness, pattern, art, culture, etc. As long as a certain point can touch people's hearts, they can start gambling.
Now, let's change the angle. The altcoin is actually a meme, but the storytelling method is different. Let's look at a few classic cases:
dot
The protagonist in the center of the last bull market, his story is eth2.0 created by the author of the Ethereum yellow paper, which is much more advanced and will kill eth in seconds. The valuation is directly benchmarked or surpassed by eth. With the parallel chain auction and other short-term operations that lock a large number of chips and attract attention, it has rushed to a market value of tens of billions in the bull market.
So how many of these narratives are true? We couldn't see it clearly at the time, but now we can understand it. It's all nonsense.
There are only two differences between this coin and the meme coin:
One is the different story. Meme tells stories about frogs, dealers, culture, etc., while dot tells stories about ETH killers, ETH yellow paper authors, blockchain upgrades and the future. The stories are just different. You may say that the development cost of dot is completely different from that of pepe, and how many developers and engineers are behind it.But please note that these differences may only serve the story.
Second, the shippers are different.
The shippers of dot include the team, investors (hundreds of times online), market makers, and node big users.
Meme is completely different. For example, the meme bome on sol, all chips are distributed by paying money. Even if the dealer wants to hold the currency, he must first pay sol. The paid sol does not go into the pocket, but directly into the pool. It means that although the dealer will have more chips, after adding the pool, everyone starts from the same starting line. If you don’t want to play, you go to smash the market. If you want to play, you buy it, and the casino begins-there are no hidden shippers, and there is no additional issuance mechanism like dot, which gives you a huge amount of tokens every year.
Next, let’s look at another case
Arb
arb is the best project among all L2s, and the user experience of the project is very good. So let’s analyze it from the perspective of meme:
First, the story it tells: the leader of L2, the future ecological explosion, etc.
Second, the people who ship: early investors, ecological projects (supported by arb), and airdrop big users
Arb doesn't seem to have increased, but in fact, fdv has increased a lot, that is, retail investors take over while large investors sell, maintaining a balance.
In fact, if you think about it carefully, almost all projects are like this, with the rare exceptions being ETH and bnb
ETH has formed its own business closed loop: a large amount of use, a large amount of fee income, a deflationary economic model, and a long period of chip turnover, and it's done.
BNB is completely Binance's business closed loop: more users, more fees, more good projects, better BNB demand, higher bnb holder loyalty - more users.
3. The closed loop of VC coins is difficult
In fact, there is a big difference between VC coins and memes, which is the main reason why this industry cannot only have meme coins, that is, VC coins are born to expand and solve some things. Without their efforts, we are still speculating on LTC and ETC.
So, you can choose not to play, but don't despise them. On the contrary, the more you understand, the more you will respect them.
Meme is a liberal arts subject, full of romance and excitement.
Value coins are science subjects, boring and hardcore, and good at calculations.
But none of them can be missing. Without memes, there is no traffic, and without traffic, there is no future.Without value coins, there is no future. Without a future, Meme will die.
Therefore, the most important closed loop of VC is whether its commercial value can be closed. For example, if a project is valued at 20 billion, can it create matching value, continue to grow, and even form a moat? The logic of coin holders hyping memes and hyping value coins is different. It is better to ask more about hyping value coins, what are the benefits for me as a holder? ETH adopts a deflation model to a certain extent to answer this question.
If you look at it from the perspective of commercial value, you will find many slogans ridiculous and self-defeating: for example, a public chain with a market value of tens of billions and a few kittens and puppies in the ecosystem still wants to fool you about how big the ecosystem can be in the future.
In fact, you only need to look at it from a few aspects:
First, how much do you believe in the story he tells, and how many people will believe it. This is the source of buying and the judgment of your exit timing.
Second, who are the people who ship the goods, and how many are there? How much do they cost. If 90% of the coins can be thrown to you at low cost, you want this story to increase 10 times, then you need hundreds of billions to take over? If you and your group friends don’t have so much money, then be careful.
Of course, I didn’t name any of them here, so I’m easy to be criticized—but don’t mind it, there are more than just this one, there are projects like this on the market.
For example, the popular re-staking track, eigenlayer is about to issue a coin, which is the core and leader of the re-staking track. The story he tells is also very big, but after issuing the coin, people will care about the value he creates, how high the market value can be supported, and who will distribute the chips? Many questions are terrifying to think about.
Finally, I suddenly remembered four words, "It’s rare to be confused."
Those who can make a lot of money in this circle must be sober enough and have a deep enough understanding; on the other hand, they must also learn to participate in bubbles and illusions, and it’s rare to be confused.
1. Who are the people in the currency circle?
At present, if the people in the currency circle are stratified, 95% are speculators, and they all come to make money - the degree of intensity may be different.
It can even be subdivided. A very high proportion of this 95% comes to make quick money and big money - that is, "I come to the currency circle to turn over, not double."
This is very different from the stock market.
Understanding this difference understands the underlying logic of the currency circle, and understands that no matter how good the currency is, as long as it suddenly stops rising, people will leave it - no matter what currency it is.
2. Why is meme popular?
Meme coins are simple and have better release. Basically, everyone directly gambles in a relatively fair environment. Its greatest value is actually a "buy me, I may rise 100x."
If all speculative behaviors are like betting in a casino, meme is just one of the gambling tables.
This gambling table should be relatively fair and transparent. All the rules are centered around pulling and smashing the market. People are willing to accept the loss. People have a high tolerance for memes that return to zero or rugged.
On the meme gambling table, the dealer or community only needs to find a way to show some unique narratives and present some essential things, such as fairness, pattern, art, culture, etc. As long as a certain point can touch people's hearts, they can start gambling.
Now, let's change the angle. The altcoin is actually a meme, but the storytelling method is different. Let's look at a few classic cases:
dot
The protagonist in the center of the last bull market, his story is eth2.0 created by the author of the Ethereum yellow paper, which is much more advanced and will kill eth in seconds. The valuation is directly benchmarked or surpassed by eth. With the parallel chain auction and other short-term operations that lock a large number of chips and attract attention, it has rushed to a market value of tens of billions in the bull market.
So how many of these narratives are true? We couldn't see it clearly at the time, but now we can understand it. It's all nonsense.
There are only two differences between this coin and the meme coin:
One is the different story. Meme tells stories about frogs, dealers, culture, etc., while dot tells stories about ETH killers, ETH yellow paper authors, blockchain upgrades and the future. The stories are just different. You may say that the development cost of dot is completely different from that of pepe, and how many developers and engineers are behind it.But please note that these differences may only serve the story.
Second, the shippers are different.
The shippers of dot include the team, investors (hundreds of times online), market makers, and node big users.
Meme is completely different. For example, the meme bome on sol, all chips are distributed by paying money. Even if the dealer wants to hold the currency, he must first pay sol. The paid sol does not go into the pocket, but directly into the pool. It means that although the dealer will have more chips, after adding the pool, everyone starts from the same starting line. If you don’t want to play, you go to smash the market. If you want to play, you buy it, and the casino begins-there are no hidden shippers, and there is no additional issuance mechanism like dot, which gives you a huge amount of tokens every year.
Next, let’s look at another case
Arb
arb is the best project among all L2s, and the user experience of the project is very good. So let’s analyze it from the perspective of meme:
First, the story it tells: the leader of L2, the future ecological explosion, etc.
Second, the people who ship: early investors, ecological projects (supported by arb), and airdrop big users
Arb doesn't seem to have increased, but in fact, fdv has increased a lot, that is, retail investors take over while large investors sell, maintaining a balance.
In fact, if you think about it carefully, almost all projects are like this, with the rare exceptions being ETH and bnb
ETH has formed its own business closed loop: a large amount of use, a large amount of fee income, a deflationary economic model, and a long period of chip turnover, and it's done.
BNB is completely Binance's business closed loop: more users, more fees, more good projects, better BNB demand, higher bnb holder loyalty - more users.
3. The closed loop of VC coins is difficult
In fact, there is a big difference between VC coins and memes, which is the main reason why this industry cannot only have meme coins, that is, VC coins are born to expand and solve some things. Without their efforts, we are still speculating on LTC and ETC.
So, you can choose not to play, but don't despise them. On the contrary, the more you understand, the more you will respect them.
Meme is a liberal arts subject, full of romance and excitement.
Value coins are science subjects, boring and hardcore, and good at calculations.
But none of them can be missing. Without memes, there is no traffic, and without traffic, there is no future.Without value coins, there is no future. Without a future, Meme will die.
Therefore, the most important closed loop of VC is whether its commercial value can be closed. For example, if a project is valued at 20 billion, can it create matching value, continue to grow, and even form a moat? The logic of coin holders hyping memes and hyping value coins is different. It is better to ask more about hyping value coins, what are the benefits for me as a holder? ETH adopts a deflation model to a certain extent to answer this question.
If you look at it from the perspective of commercial value, you will find many slogans ridiculous and self-defeating: for example, a public chain with a market value of tens of billions and a few kittens and puppies in the ecosystem still wants to fool you about how big the ecosystem can be in the future.
In fact, you only need to look at it from a few aspects:
First, how much do you believe in the story he tells, and how many people will believe it. This is the source of buying and the judgment of your exit timing.
Second, who are the people who ship the goods, and how many are there? How much do they cost. If 90% of the coins can be thrown to you at low cost, you want this story to increase 10 times, then you need hundreds of billions to take over? If you and your group friends don’t have so much money, then be careful.
Of course, I didn’t name any of them here, so I’m easy to be criticized—but don’t mind it, there are more than just this one, there are projects like this on the market.
For example, the popular re-staking track, eigenlayer is about to issue a coin, which is the core and leader of the re-staking track. The story he tells is also very big, but after issuing the coin, people will care about the value he creates, how high the market value can be supported, and who will distribute the chips? Many questions are terrifying to think about.
Finally, I suddenly remembered four words, "It’s rare to be confused."
Those who can make a lot of money in this circle must be sober enough and have a deep enough understanding; on the other hand, they must also learn to participate in bubbles and illusions, and it’s rare to be confused.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
