The largest cryptocurrency on the market has fallen 9% since flirting with the $100,000 mark,

#Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with the US$ 100,000 level at the end of last week, driven by optimism with the victory of #DonaldTrump , which this year demonstrated strong support for the crypto industry. Since then, however, the largest cryptocurrency on the market fell 9%, to the US$90,000 range, and then rose again to US$95,000, showing that volatility is still part of the market.

Data from The Volatility Laboratory (V-Lab), at New York University (NYU), show that the degree of variation in the price of the digital asset in the last year was almost 60%, compared to 19% in the CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the expected volatility of stocks based on S&P 500 options. In other words, three times greater.

Part of the recent rise and fall in price is due to investor profit-taking. A study by the CryptoQuant platform shows that long-term BTC holders sold more than 728 thousand units of the crypto in the last 30 days, equivalent to US$67 billion – more than the market value of Itaú (ITUB4). “This marks the biggest sale since April”, wrote the platform on X, on Tuesday (26).

Mychel Mendes, partner at Tokeniza, told reporters yesterday afternoon that the current movement was expected. “Those who invested in #criptomoeda in 2021 have an average price of around US$ 20,000 to US$ 30,000. Those who entered later bought around US$ 70,000 to US$ 80,000 and are currently making gains of 20% to 30%. This group took advantage of the favorable market moment to take profits, which is a natural movement.

Should the price fall further or rise?

According to Mendes, the price could fall a little further, perhaps to around US$ 90,000, before resuming the upward trend, as investors who sold at US$ 100,000 can take advantage to buy back at US$ 90,000. Last night, the crypto actually touched US$ 90,796. On the morning of this Wednesday (27), Bitcoin was trading at US$ 93,079; this afternoon, it jumped to US$ 95,400.

“The monthly charts still point to a continued upward trend. Furthermore, I see as an extremely positive point the possibility of a significant appreciation of #altcoins in the coming days or weeks, driven by the recent stability in the price of Bitcoin.”

Is it worth investing now?

Paula Reis, a CNPI-T analyst and partner at Ripio, was one of the experts who suggested in mid-November that the cryptocurrency could undergo a correction, potentially falling to $91,000 or $86,000. According to her, “it is an opportunity for outsiders to buy at the $91,000 to $86,000 levels.”

She also said that she renews her prediction that Bitcoin could hit US$120,000 in this bullish cycle – some of the local experts still believe in US$100,000 by the end of 2024. This month, the Bernstein brokerage once again reaffirmed the bet on a price of US$200,000 by 2025, driven mainly by optimism with Trump's victory.