2024/12/24 BTC Technical Indicators and Probability Analysis of Price Movements
Technical Indicator Status
1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Current Value: 43.097
Interpretation: The RSI is in the 40-50 range, indicating a neutral to weak market, not yet reaching the oversold area, but showing signs of downward pressure.
2. Bollinger Bands
Upper Band: 96,403 USD
Middle Band: 93,500 USD
Lower Band: 91,113 USD
Interpretation: The price is close to the lower band, suggesting that there may be a support level. If the price breaks below the lower band, further declines may occur.
3. ATR (Average True Range)
Current Value: 2,100 USD
Interpretation: The intraday volatility range is ±2,100 USD, indicating moderate to high market volatility, suggesting significant price fluctuation potential.
4. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
MACD Line: -120
Signal Line: -105
Histogram: -15 (continuing to expand)
Interpretation: The MACD histogram is further expanding, indicating a clear bearish trend, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term.
1. Probability of Price Increase
Probability: 35%
Conditions:
If the price can break through 93,500 USD (Bollinger middle band) and hold.
RSI rebounds above 50.
Target Price: 95,500 ~ 96,400 USD
Basis: Combined resistance from the Bollinger middle band and short-term bullish rebound expectations.
2. Probability of Price Decrease
Probability: 65%
Conditions:
If the price breaks below 91,113 USD (Bollinger lower band).
MACD bearish trend continues.
Target Price: 90,000 ~ 89,000 USD
Basis: Current market sentiment is bearish, and trading volume is insufficient to support a rebound.
Short-term Trading Strategy
1. Bullish Strategy
Entry Conditions: Price breaks through 93,500 USD and RSI rebounds above 50.
Operational Advice:
Initial Entry: Allocate 10% position, entry point at 93,500 USD.
Additional Strategy: If the price breaks through 95,000 USD and holds, add 10% to the position.
Stop Loss Point: 91,500 USD
Target Price: First target 95,500 USD, second target 96,400 USD.
2. Bearish Strategy
Entry Conditions: Price breaks below 91,113 USD (Bollinger lower band).
Operational Advice:
Initial Entry: Allocate 15% position, entry point at 91,000 USD.
Additional Strategy: If the price breaks below 90,000 USD, add 10% to the position.
Stop Loss Point: 92,000 USD
Target Price: First target 90,000 USD, second target 89,000 USD.
