2025/1/30 BTC Technical Indicators and Price Fluctuation Probability Analysis
Technical Indicator Analysis
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Current RSI is 56.419, in the neutral zone, indicating the market is neither overheated nor too cold.
• Stochastic Indicator (STOCH): STOCH(9,6) is 99.328, in overbought condition, possibly indicating a price correction.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD(12,26) is 336.8, showing a buy signal, suggesting an upward trend.
Price Fluctuation Probability Forecast
• Probability of Increase: 60%
• Condition: If the price breaks through $103,500 and stabilizes.
• Target Price: $105,000 - $107,000.
• Basis: MACD shows a buy signal, and historical data indicates a rising trend for Bitcoin during the Lunar New Year period.
• Probability of Decrease: 40%
• Condition: If the price falls below $101,000.
• Target Price: $99,000 - $97,000.
• Basis: STOCH is in overbought condition, a price correction may occur.
Short-term Trading Strategy
• Bullish Strategy:
• Entry Condition: Price breaks through $103,500 and stabilizes.
• Operational Suggestions:
• Invest 50% of funds upon first entry.
• If the price corrects to $102,000 and stabilizes, add the remaining funds.
• Stop Loss Point: $100,500.
• Target Price Level:
• First Target: $105,000.
• Second Target: $107,000.
• Bearish Strategy:
• Entry Condition: Price falls below $101,000.
• Operational Suggestions:
• Invest 50% of funds upon first entry.
• If further declines to $99,500 with no rebound, add additional funds.
• Stop Loss Point: $103,000.
• Target Price Level:
• First Target: $99,000.
• Second Target: $97,000.
Long-term Investment Recommendations
• Recommended Layout Range: $97,000 - $99,000.
• Execution Strategy: Enter in batches, with each additional investment not exceeding 10% of the portfolio.
• Long-term Target Price Level: $120,000.