2025/2/3 BTC technical indicators and rise and fall probability analysis
Technical indicator analysis
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 45.2, which is in the neutral zone and shows that the market lacks a clear direction.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line and the histogram shows negative values, indicating increasing downward pressure.
• Bollinger Bands: When the price approaches the lower Bollinger Band, there may be a rebound or further decline.
Rise and fall probability prediction
• Probability of upside: 40%
• Condition: If the price can break through and stabilize above $100,000.
• Target price: $102,000 - $104,000.
• Rationale: Technical indicators show that the market is in a neutral to weak state, but if it breaks through the key resistance level, it may trigger upward momentum.
• Probability of falling: 60%
• Condition: If the price remains below $98,000 for a sustained period.
• Target price: $95,000 – $93,000.
• Rationale: Technical indicators show that downward pressure is increasing and the price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, and may further test the support level.
Short-term trading strategies
• Long Strategy:
• Entry conditions: Price breaks through $100,000 and holds.
• Operational suggestions:
• Invest 50% of your funds when you first enter the market.
• If the price pulls back to $99,000 and stabilizes, add the remaining funds.
• Stop loss: $97,500.
• Target price:
• First goal: $102,000.
• Secondary goal: $104,000.
• Short strategy:
• Entry conditions: Price falls below $98,000.
• Operational suggestions:
• Invest 50% of your funds when you first enter the market.
• If it falls further to $96,500 and there is no rebound, add some funds.
• Stop loss: $99,000.
• Target price:
• First goal: $95,000.
• Secondary goal: $93,000.
Long-term investment advice
• Recommended layout range: US$93,000 - 95,000.
• Execution strategy: Enter the market in batches, and the amount of funds added at a single time shall not exceed 10% of the investment portfolio.
• Long-term price target: $110,000.
$BTC
