2025/2/6 BTC Technical Indicators and Price Fluctuation Probability Analysis
Technical Indicator Analysis
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently, the RSI is at 65, nearing the overbought zone, indicating potential retracement pressure in the market.
• Moving Average (MA): The short-term (10-day) and medium-term (50-day) moving averages show an upward trend, and the short-term moving average is above the medium-term moving average, indicating that the upward trend is still continuing.
• Bollinger Bands: The price is near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that the market may be in an overbought state, and caution should be taken regarding retracement risks.
Price Fluctuation Probability Forecast
• Upward Probability: 40%
• Conditions: If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $100,800.
• Target Price: $105,000 - $107,000.
• Basis: Breaking through recent highs may attract more buying pressure, pushing the price further up.
• Downward Probability: 60%
• Conditions: If the price falls below $96,000.
• Target Price: $92,000 - $90,000.
• Basis: Falling below a critical support level may trigger further selling pressure.
Short-Term Trading Strategy
• Bullish Strategy:
• Entry Conditions: Price breaks above $100,800 and stabilizes.
• Operational Recommendations:
• Invest 50% of capital on the first entry.
• If the price retraces to $99,500 and stabilizes, add remaining capital.
• Stop Loss Point: $96,000.
• Target Price Levels:
• First Target: $105,000.
• Second Target: $107,000.
• Bearish Strategy:
• Entry Conditions: Price falls below $96,000.
• Operational Recommendations:
• Invest 50% of capital on the first entry.
• If it further falls to $94,000 without a rebound, add some capital.
• Stop Loss Point: $98,000.
• Target Price Levels:
• First Target: $92,000.
• Second Target: $90,000.
Long-Term Investment Recommendations
• Suggested Investment Range: $90,000 - $92,000.
• Execution Strategy: Enter in batches, with a single increase in capital no more than 10% of the investment portfolio.
• Long-Term Target Price Level: $115,000.
