BTC's rebound faces resistance. Is Bybit to blame?
Recently, BTC aimed to rise above 100,000 dollars but failed. Some say it was affected by the Bybit theft incident, but I see it as the market itself lacking the strength to push up, just finding an excuse. The main issue is still weak demand, and the upward momentum has also weakened. The market is currently very fragile; as soon as it improves slightly, someone rushes to sell, as no one really believes it can rise later, just wanting to secure their profits.
The market is currently too sluggish and urgently needs new forces to stimulate it. However, this fragile situation could worsen if another major crisis like FTX occurs. Fortunately, after the incident with Bybit, there was no panic selling; many exchanges and big players helped out. It’s at times like this that unity can sustain us.
The current BTC trend is unclear, with both demand and confidence lacking. Retail investors can only patiently wait for an opportunity to seize a turning point.
Is Bitcoin about to rebound? Does the hash rate indicator suggest buying?
ETH has recently walked into an independent trend, and everyone is guessing whether this can also bring up the altcoins.
ETH jumped 5% yesterday, recovering previous losses. This is mainly because ETH in Bybit's wallet was drained, and there was a rush to replenish stock, driving the price up.
But I think ETH is unlikely to drive the altcoins this time. Look, if there really was a significant market, it would have surged with consecutive large bullish candles like last time during the crash; this time it’s obvious that the follow-up momentum is lacking. Moreover, the trading volume during this rise is even smaller than during the previous crash, and there aren’t many followers buying in. Previously, on November 5, when there was a big market, Bitcoin rose first, followed by ETH, and then the altcoins rose together. Now, neither Bitcoin nor other altcoins have returned to their prices before the drop, indicating that the market has not reached a consensus on rising.
Why can't altcoins rise?
Altcoins have been unable to rise significantly mainly because market funds have not flowed here yet and are still in the capital layout stage. Just like Dogecoin, before Elon Musk promoted it in 2021, the price was always lukewarm; capital likes to position itself when no one is paying attention.
The altcoin market is still very sluggish now, with hot money not coming in, and Ethereum is also fluctuating. The space for ETH to rise is limited and needs to be thoroughly washed out. It might reach between 3100 - 3400, but there isn't enough capital in the U.S. The U.S. has not controlled the ETH market well, so it can’t rise too high. BTC's chips are mostly in the U.S., just like the U.S. stock market can keep pushing higher.
Last year was a cycle of 3 - 2 waves of fluctuation, so the upcoming cycle of 3 - 4 waves down will be quite fierce. The height of the cycle 3 - 3 wave up is conservatively estimated to be at least over 150,000.
Key nodes in the market next week
Next week has several key time points for the market. On Wednesday after the U.S. stock market closes, Nvidia will release its earnings report, which may impact the market. On Thursday at 21:30, a bunch of U.S. economic data will be released, and important data will also be announced on Friday at 21:30.
How to judge the strength of the altcoins in hand?
Finally, I will teach everyone how to judge the strength of the altcoins in hand. Refer to the spike situation on February 3; if the price can recover, there may be strong whales, and it can follow the market up or even have an independent trend; if the price is close to or below that of February 3, there is basically no hope in the short term, and you might consider swapping it out.
The above content is just for sharing and communication and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is ever-changing, so everyone must control risks themselves. If you think these shares could help you, please give a thumbs up and follow along for further discussions!