The recent price drop of Solana (SOL) can be analyzed and understood from many angles. Here are some possible factors.

First, the overall market environment may be an important factor affecting the price of SOL. Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been affected by various external pressures, such as the volatility of Bitcoin prices and macroeconomic uncertainties (such as interest rate expectations or inflation data), which may cause funds to flow out of high-risk assets (such as altcoins such as SOL) and trigger price corrections. In addition, if the broader market (such as Bitcoin or Ethereum) adjusts, SOL, as an asset that is more sensitive to market sentiment, will usually follow the decline.

Secondly, the dynamics of Solana’s own ecosystem are also worth paying attention to. Recent reports have mentioned that approximately 11.2 million SOL (worth approximately US$2.3 billion) will be unlocked in March 2025. This large-scale unlocking may lead to increased market expectations of short-term selling pressure. Investors tend to adjust their positions before unlocking to avoid potential downside risks. In the short term (next few weeks), the probability of SOL falling below $100 is low, but not impossible. As of February 25, 2025, the SOL price fluctuates around $180, still some distance away from $100. To fall below $100, the market would need significant additional selling pressure or a negative catalyst. The following is a detailed analysis:

### Factors supporting a break below $100

1. Unlocking pressure: About 11.2 million SOL (worth about $2.3 billion) will be unlocked in March 2025. If the market fails to effectively absorb this supply, the sell-off may cause a sharp drop in prices. Historically, similar large-scale unlocking has triggered a 20%-30% correction. If it falls 30% from $180, the price may be close to $120-130, and if there is panic selling, it is possible to fall below $100.

2. Market sentiment: The current cryptocurrency market is greatly affected by the volatility of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin falls below key support (such as $60,000), the entire market may enter panic mode, and SOL, as a highly volatile asset, may fall further and hit below $100.

3. Technical aspects: SOL has recently fallen below $200 and some short-term moving averages (such as the 50-day moving average), and the next support is at $130-150. If this range is lost, the next strong support will be around $100 or even lower (the historical low is the $80-90 range in 2023).

Factors Against a Break below $100

1. Current support: From $180 to $100, it would take a drop of about 44%, which would require extremely strong selling pressure in the short term. The $130-150 range has strong historical support and buying concentration, which could slow down the decline.

2. Ecosystem resilience: Although Solana’s on-chain activity has declined due to the decline of the meme coin craze, its fundamentals (such as trading volume and developer activity) are still better than many competing products. If the ecosystem shows signs of rebound before and after unlocking (such as new projects going online or capital inflows), it may stabilize the price.

3. Market cycle: The crypto market is still in a relatively optimistic stage at the beginning of 2025 (assuming the bull market continues), and investors may be more inclined to take over at a low level rather than let SOL fall below $100.

Judgment

- Short term (January-February): The probability of falling below $100 is about 20%-30%. The more likely scenario is that the price finds support and stabilizes in the $130-150 range, unless there is an extreme event (such as a large-scale hacker attack or a global financial market collapse).

- Medium to long term (March-June): If the selling pressure after unlocking continues and Solana fails to regain narrative heat (such as meme coins or AI projects), the probability of falling below $100 may rise to 40%-50%. However, if the overall market recovers, SOL is expected to hold $100 and rebound.

SOL falling below $100 is not the most likely outcome at the moment, but it cannot be completely ruled out, especially under the dual influence of the unlocking event and the market trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the key support level of $130. If it is lost, it may indicate further decline; conversely, if it stabilizes at $130-150, it may avoid falling below $100.