People take two years to learn to talk, and then spend a lifetime learning to be quiet. In the clamor of the cryptocurrency world, success and fame are synonymous; there is virtually no distance between traffic and monetization, because it revolves around asset issuance and recovery, also known as wealth redistribution, and becoming famous becomes a necessity for every practitioner. VC is no longer high-end but is keen on daily Twitter surfing for project links; CEXs have transformed into emotional spa masters, tossing information back and forth in X/TG/WeChat groups to ensure public relations crises are manageable; male and female business development personnel linger between traffic and wandering, burning high salaries in the secondary market seeking the dream of getting rich quickly. If one is lucky enough not to step into these pitfalls, or to escape crisis public relations by luck, they will gain the largest traffic. Using the formula, traffic can instantly turn into trading volume. Some say Binance's profit is $50 billion, while others say Bitget's year-end bonus is 50 months. Truth and falsehood coexist, but the leading position is unquestionable. However, how long can the lead last?

The leader's dilemma - overestimating oneself

FUD against Solana and doubts about Binance selling are unnecessary. From the beginning, Solana has followed the 'standalone chain' model, which is the fundamental source of its high performance. Jump's operation ability and SBF's direct claims are merely cooperating with Solana rather than using it unilaterally.

The reasoning of Binance is similar. Binance's operations are not problematic; the problem is that the Binance of 2017 cannot survive in 2025. If CZ is forcibly staked for four months, no successor can surpass him, thus whether CZ keeps up with the times is not a problem now.

The problem with Binance lies only within itself, perhaps it can be called 'crushed by self-weight':

Internal small interest groups and people floating on the surface, from Trust Wallet being left behind by OKX Web3 Wallet to employees frequently clashing with users, it is rather He Yi and CZ who are soothing the market. This is almost a black humor that contradicts Marxism; it should have been employees supporting the company, with the boss exploiting employees, but now it resembles a mother hen protecting a weasel.

In 2017, Binance arbitraged globally, taking in users and traffic fleeing Huobi and OK under the ban. This was Binance's timing. The global migration maximized the advantages of offshore exchanges, which was geographical advantage. Additionally, dealing with conflicts between co-founders, external investors, and the company constituted human factors. It is evident that the timing is no longer in favor, the US Department of Justice has effectively become Binance's timing, geographical advantage has disappeared, and Binance, Labs, and BNB Chain are now worlds apart. The ecological synergy cannot be openly stated, and the human factors are lacking, as highly educated employees do not seek middle-level business development but purely want to make money.

When the series of TST and CZ's Dog unfolded, Four.Meme only started to gain momentum after earning hundreds of millions at Pump.Fun. After AI Agents and Memes disappeared, CZ began researching ways to combine AI Agents with the BNB Chain.

Heroes fade away, nothing more.

At this point, only self-rescue is possible. BNB will become a true Web3 asset, needing to shoulder the responsibilities of BNB Chain and Binance in the era of post-link regulation. Empowering BNB can ensure Binance's position among CEXs. Kaito's airdrop for BNB holders is just an appetizer; how to truly make BNB Chain a distinct chain, rather than a subsidiary chain of Binance, is crucial. Wallets can no longer be relied upon; CZ needs to leave himself a ticket to enter the future on-chain ecosystem.

In many people's memories, the impression of BNB Chain still lingers in the last cycle of the BSC dog era. Now CZ is beginning to relearn the ways of the cryptocurrency world. After completely withdrawing from Binance, the opportunity to verify whether he is the king of picking up leaks or a genuine entrepreneur has arrived.

The fate of the followers - long on errors

PI's territorial expansion only verifies one thing: the breakout effect of $TRUMP is not as significant as Musk's call for Dogecoin in 2021. I was previously very optimistic about Trump coin, not because of the coin price, but because of the breakout effect.

Unfortunately, Trump's pump was too strong, leading to a huge dump in a very short time. In 2021, Dogecoin rose slowly, and Musk's choice to hint rather than publicly support it also allowed Dogecoin to embark on an independent trend.

After Trump, the presidents chosen by the Solana token issuing group all face this issue. The collateral damage of political figures is far more complex than that of celebrities. Why are president coins so short-lived both in individual cycles and in overall cycles (from Trump to Milei, at most one month)? Perhaps it is because the backlash against the deconstruction of political seriousness is too severe.

Therefore, OKX chose to surrender to PI, and the ripple effect is astonishing. Whether Bybit accepts it or not, even Binance has picked up the retro play of voting for listing coins. Although it may not necessarily list coins, it verifies the correctness of OKX's risky chess moves - allowing the industry to follow its own rhythm and even directing the pace of industry leaders.

Of course, after PI lists coins, it will inevitably follow the established path of a Ponzi scheme. However, the great advantage of the cryptocurrency world is that everyone knows this is a Ponzi scheme, which is the biggest difference from traditional finance. Traditional finance does not acknowledge the emperor's new clothes, while the cryptocurrency world chooses to acknowledge it.

If you don't like it, you can short it. This is He Yi's answer. In Bitget's system, if I don't like it, I still have to say it. You say city gate tower, I say hip axle, but still, the point is that the hierarchy in the cryptocurrency world is too shallow, public opinion and private discourse are entangled in a quantum way, and the inescapable fate leads to an infinite amplification of crises.

Image description: Performance of various CEXs in listing coins

Image source: Animoca Brands Research

"Time flows like this, never pausing day or night." The foreign explanation: Confucius stood by the river, pointing at a floating corpse and said, "Do you see? In the future, you will be just like this."

For followers, you must continuously do the right things to gain a bit of user trust, but conversely, making a wrong move could lead to disaster. However, followers cannot afford to do nothing; otherwise, a stable situation will naturally favor the largest share of leaders. Thus, an industry training camp with an average employee tenure of four months has smoothly emerged. This situation means that even Yan Xishan would not survive for half a year.

Leaders have many problems, but their size advantage overshadows everything. All mistakes can be covered up by a single token airdrop from BNB and a simple price rise, followed by a peaceful passage of time.

The cryptocurrency industry giants will resemble the internet more, while the internet will resemble state-owned enterprises. Everything is becoming institutionalized, turning into part of an existing order.

Pinduoduo caught up with JD by compressing employees' bathroom breaks, becoming the second in China, while Temu challenged Amazon. The second in both markets is the global first. Now, the followers in the cryptocurrency world will also learn the strategies from the internet 5/6 years ago. In a word, more competition and more drama from CEXs will be the main theme of 2025. They will not be quickly replaced by DEXs like Hyperliquid, let alone the self-destructive acts of Solana's DEXs like JUP.

Whether Solana will become the third chain after BTC/ETH remains uncertain, and now BNB Chain must join the battle.