This analysis depends on several factors, both technical and fundamental and macroeconomic. Here is a detailed assessment:
1. Fundamentals of Tezos ($XTZ )
- Technology:
Tezos stands out for its self-scaling blockchain approach (via on-chain updates) and its energy-efficient Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus.
- Advantages: Scalability via solutions such as rollups (Etherlink for EVM), low transaction costs, and decentralized governance.
- Risks: Increased competition (Solana, Ethereum 2.0, Cardano) could limit its adoption.
- Adoption :
- Institutional: Tezos is used by companies (e.g. Société Générale for CBDCs) and NFT partnerships (Red Bull Racing, gaming).
- DeFi: The ecosystem remains modest (TVL < $100M in 2024), but projects like Youves (stablecoins) or Kolibri (lending) could gain traction.
2. Key Factors for 2025
Opportunities
- Major updates:
If Tezos continues to innovate (e.g., improving speed via Etherlink), it could attract developers.
- Regulation:
A pro-regulation approach (native compliance) could favor XTZ against less flexible competitors.
- NFT et Gaming :
Tezos's NFT ecosystem (fxhash, Objkt) remains active. A viral blockchain game in 2025 could boost XTZ.
Threats
- Concurrence :
Ethereum (after the Dencun upgrade) and Solana dominate the smart contract market. Tezos needs to differentiate itself.
- Liquidity and Visibility:
XTZ has lost ground in market cap (top 50 in 2024 vs. top 10 in 2021). A lack of marketing could limit its growth.
3. Technical Analysis and Price in 2025
- Bullish Scenario (Strong Adoption + Rising Crypto Market):
- If XTZ captures 1-2% of the total market (cap ~$3T in 2025), its price could reach $5-10.
- Triggers: Major partnership, explosion of DeFi on Tezos.
- Bearish Scenario (Technical stagnation + competition):
- Price could stagnate between $0.5-2, especially in the event of a prolonged bear market.
- Key level to monitor:
- Resistance: $2.5 (psychological level).
- Support: $0.8 (historical level).
4. Conclusion: Moderate Potential with Upside
Tezos has solid technology but still lacks mass adoption. In 2025, its success will depend on:
✅ Its ability to attract developers and businesses.
✅ The evolution of the crypto market (bull/bear cycle).
✅ Its differentiation from Ethereum, Solana, etc.
Recommendation :
- An investment in XTZ in 2024-2025 can be interesting for the long term (3-5 years), but with a moderate allocation (1-3% of a crypto portfolio).
- Monitor partnership announcements and DeFi/NFT activity on the network.
(Note: This is not financial advice, do your own research.)
🔍 To follow Tezos news: [Tezos.com](https://tezos.com/) | [CoinGecko XTZ](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tezos).
