Under the dual impact of slowing retail sales growth in April and an unexpected decline in the PPI month-on-month, the dollar index is under pressure and falling. However, the dollar's upward trend varies across different time periods. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has resumed its upward movement after ending its sideways trend; although the fluctuation range is limited, it has broken the downward trend of the previous two days, and Ethereum has also adjusted in tandem.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy-making framework, and zero interest rates are no longer the baseline scenario. It is necessary to re-examine the statements regarding underemployment and average inflation rates and expect the April PCE to drop to 2.2%.
The market is highly focused on the June interest rate decision to be announced in 34 days. Currently, due to easing concerns about economic recession, the market generally expects no interest rate cuts in June and July.
Trump's stance on interest rate cuts also affects market sentiment, coupled with a downward trend in inflation. The current Federal Reserve interest rates seem more stringent, and investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve are becoming cautious.
Additionally, Powell's remarks this week have been vague, but the recent influx of large funds from institutions and the main control have given investors new expectations. However, the performance during the consolidation period has been poor, and the market is still maintaining a wait-and-see attitude in the short term.
In terms of trade, Japan plans to start the third round of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations next week, while the U.S. is considering modifying the U.S.-Japan trade agreement. At the same time, the EU and the U.S. will accelerate trade negotiations, with the EU hoping for a greater reduction in tariffs compared to the UK.
Pay attention to the U.S. May one-year inflation expectation preliminary value (previous value 6.50%) and the preliminary value of the May University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (market expectation 53.1, previous value 52.2) to be released at 22:00 tonight.
This week's market has shown regular oscillations between the ranges of 100718 - 105819. Although data such as CPI and unemployment claims have limited impact, the bullish PPI has failed to push the market to break through, and the sluggish trading volume has led to continuous price oscillations.
If there are no major fluctuations in the market tonight, the weekend is likely to continue in a sideways trend. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's rise has encountered resistance in the supply dense area between the historical highs of $106,000 - $109,000, and the obvious decline in trading volume reflects a decrease in market participation. However, the weekly chart shows that the short-term EMA is above the long-term moving averages, indicating an overall bullish pattern, although the short-term bullish momentum has weakened.
If Bitcoin cannot stabilize above $106,000 next week, it may trigger a price decline or continued oscillation, and bullish positions will face liquidation risks. Currently, one can only wait for the main force's direction or new supportive news. Breaking the deadlock of sideways movement is necessary to welcome new changes in the market.
After the announcement of the interest rate cut in December, the market reacted unexpectedly calmly. What seems stable is actually turbulent beneath the surface. The current trend is typical of an accumulation stage, continuously testing the market through slight pullbacks and rebounds.
In terms of macroeconomics, Trump's adjustment of tariff policies has boosted the stock market and the dollar, reducing the risk of economic recession and weakening market volatility. Bitcoin has gained investor favor due to increased institutional demand, favorable policy environment, and improved macro conditions.
However, despite several favorable policy news this week, Bitcoin is currently hovering around the support level of $100,000. To reach new highs, more off-market funds or substantial favorable news are needed. Although the current technical pattern seems bullish, there are suspicions of inducing buying, as Bitcoin typically experiences a pullback after an upward movement.
The current high-level volatility has lasted for a long time, and the market is generally bullish. However, under the unanimous expectations of investors, the trend has instead paused. Next week's trend awaits observation of weekend market dynamics; if signals can be released in advance, everyone will be happy. Investors need to maintain a good mindset and not be shaken by short-term volatility; the cryptocurrency market still has a long journey ahead.#CPI数据来袭 #美国PPI数据来袭 #美国加密立法 #贸易战缓和 #加密圆桌会议要点 