I. Weekly perspective: Bull and bear stalemate after breakthrough and potential pullback
BTC successfully broke through the historical high last week, ultimately closing with a high-volume doji candlestick, clearly showcasing the intense confrontation between bulls and bears. From the structural perspective, there exists a technical demand for the price to fill the gap near the left top of $104,400 after the surge. However, given that a typical high-level distribution pattern has not yet formed, although there is a risk of a pullback in this area, the likelihood of a steep plunge occurring in the short term is relatively low. If this week's candlestick closes bearish, it will end the previous six consecutive bullish trend, and the subsequent market is likely to enter a range oscillation phase of bullish stagnation.
II. Daily level: Upward trend remains intact, key support emerges
Yesterday, the BTC daily line closed with a small bearish candle, but overall it still maintains operation within an ascending channel constructed by the naked K trend line and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. An effective support level has formed around $106,600; this level is not only an important reference for intraday trading but is also expected to build a W-bottom reversal pattern, providing potential counterattack opportunities for bulls.
III. Wave type analysis: Five waves completed, adjustment cycle may last until
From the perspective of wave theory analysis, BTC has completed a five-wave upward structure and may soon face an abc three-wave adjustment. If the price breaks below the intraday support level of $106,600, it is essential to pay close attention to the key support at $104,700, as this position represents the upper edge of the left-side consolidation range and is also a support level for the Vegas channel, which is crucial for determining whether the trend will continue.
IV. 4-hour cycle: Multiple support resonance, short-term oscillation accumulation
On the 4-hour level, the price shows a triangular convergence consolidation pattern, while also nesting within a box oscillation structure. Around $106,000, there is a convergence of the lower edge of the box, the lower track of the triangular consolidation, and the lower track of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, forming a strong resonance area. If the price touches this position in the short term, a technical rebound is expected.
In summary: The major coin continues to oscillate between 106 and 111, and there is a good chance to break through to 113 this week, with altcoins also likely to rise!
