1. Market Overview and Geopolitical Impact
1. Sudden Geopolitical Events
Early this morning, the US launched airstrikes on Iran's three major nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan), triggering a surge in global risk aversion. The crypto market responded with a sharp decline within 24 hours:
- Total liquidations across the network: 675 million USD (with long positions accounting for 88%, approximately 595 million USD).
- Fear Index: Dropped sharply from 49 (neutral) to 42 (fear), indicating heightened market liquidity panic.
2. Macroeconomic Policy Background
- The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in June (4.25%-4.50%), with the dot plot indicating only a 50 basis point cut in 2025, while a strengthening dollar pressures risk assets.
- Trump calls for Powell to 'immediately cut interest rates', but market expectations for a policy shift before September are low.
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2. Mainstream Currency Table
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 100,866 USD| -1.22% | Support found at the 100,000 threshold, currently reported at 102,256 USD. |
| Ethereum (ETH)| 2,200 USD | -6.67% | Whales increase holdings against the trend by 13,000 units (paper loss of 40 million USD). |
| Altcoins (SOL/DOGE) | -4%~-8% | AI concept tokens dropped over 10%, market risk appetite shrinks. |
💡 Anomaly Analysis: ETH selling pressure is concentrated in the derivatives market (liquidations of 275 million USD), while spot whales buying indicate a long-term value consensus.
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🏦 3. On-chain Data and Institutional Trends
1. Fund Flows
- Net Outflow from Exchanges: On the 30th, an average of 72,000 BTC was transferred to cold wallets, with a lock-up rate of 9.43% (approximately 200 billion USD), reducing short-term selling pressure.
- ETF Dynamics: This week, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of 1.04 billion USD, but in the last two days, ARK/Invesco reported 'zero inflows', indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
2. Institutional Game
- Whale Standoff: A certain institution continues to build positions in ETH (average price 2,540 USD), while another whale's short position is showing a paper profit of 20.65 million USD.
- Corporate Holdings: Canadian listed company LQWD increased holdings by 5 BTC, total holdings reached 166 BTC; Spanish coffee giant Vanadi plans to invest 1.1 billion USD to buy BTC.
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📉 4. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Support Level: 100,000 USD (psychological level) → 103,500 USD (multiple stabilization points).
- Resistance Level: 104,000 USD (MA20 moving average) → 106,500 USD (previous high pressure zone).
- Technical Signals: RSI 55.5 (neutral to strong), MACD bearish momentum weakening; if it breaks MA20, a rebound may resume.
Ethereum (ETH)
- Support Level: 2,200 USD (intraday low) → 2,150 USD (on-chain liquidation concentration zone).
- Resistance Level: 2,350-2,400 USD (selling pressure zone), a breakout requires volume confirmation.
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🔮 5. Market Outlook and Trading Strategy
1. Short-term Variables
- Geopolitical Risk Escalation: If Iran retaliates, BTC may drop below 100,000, triggering 5 billion in leveraged liquidations; if the situation eases, it may recover to the 105,000 range.
- Federal Reserve Policy: Attention to Powell's testimony before Congress on June 24; if dovish signals are released, it could serve as a catalyst for a rebound.
2. Operation Suggestions
- Conservative Strategy: Wait for geopolitical clarity, focus on defending BTC 100,000 and ETH 2,150 support.
- Aggressive Opportunities: ETH RSI nearing oversold (28); if the situation eases, a short-term rebound could be pursued; consider buying BTC spot on dips (institutional ETF inflows support long-term).
Trend Prediction: Current volatility is a 'liquidity + sentiment' double kill washout, signaling an end to the bear market. Mid-term outlook remains positive for BTC to break 115,000 after the US stablecoin bill is implemented in August.
