1. Current Market Conditions
Real-Time Price and Volatility
ETH/USDT Quote: $2553.95–$2591.01 (approximately ¥18,300), 24-hour decline of -1.49% to -0.6%, intraday low reached ¥18,200, high reached ¥18,900.
Technical Indicator Signals:
MACD histogram remains positive but contracting, indicating weakening bullish strength;
KDJ value reached 92 (overbought area), there is a pullback pressure;
Price and trading volume divergence (volume down, price up), insufficient upward momentum.
Key Levels and Patterns
Support Level: $2365 (short-term strong support), $2400–2450 (psychological barrier).
Resistance Level: $2630–$2636 (recent high), $3000 (key psychological resistance).
Form Structure: In the $2400–$2636 range oscillating, the 4-hour chart shows a triangle convergence pattern, indicating a breakthrough is near.
2. Core Factors Affecting the Trend
(1) Bullish Drivers
Policy: US Senators propose a cryptocurrency tax reform bill (elimination of small transaction tax, double taxation on staking), regulatory environment is easing; India plans to pilot Bitcoin reserves, enhancing expectations for sovereign asset allocation.
On-Chain Data: ETH holdings and staking volume both reach historical highs, institutional funds continue to enter; Layer 2 ecosystem explodes (TVL accounts for 73% of DeFi), driving a 300% increase in trading volume.
Technical Upgrade: Pectra upgrade implemented (Gas fee reduced to $0.001), verification node efficiency improved, long-term deflation strengthened (EIP-1559 cumulative destruction of 3.51 million ETH).
(2) Bearish Risks
Macro Pressure: US June non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations (新增147,000), delaying Fed rate cut expectations, strong dollar suppresses risk assets.
Technical Correction: KDJ is overbought (92), volume-price divergence, short-term profit-taking needs to be digested; if it falls below $2400, it may trigger stop-loss selling pressure down to $2200.
Market Structure: Ethereum's market share falls below 10%, insufficient liquidity in altcoins may drag down ETH's independent market.
3. Short-term Trend Forecast (July)
Scenario Trigger Conditions Target Price Probability
Optimistic Breakthrough: Stabilize above $2600 and break through $2636 with volume; $2750–$3000; 40%
Consolidation: Repeatedly in the $2400–$2630 range; continuing the triangle convergence pattern; 50%
Deep Correction: Losing support at $2400; $2200–$2000; 10%
Key Catalysts:
SOL ETF Approval (mid to late July): If approved, it could drive the altcoin sector to rise in resonance;
ETH Spot ETF Progress: If applications from institutions like BlackRock are approved, it will trigger institutional capital inflow.
4. Medium to Long-Term Outlook (2025 Q4–2026)
Institution/Model Target Price Core Logic
Conservative Forecast: $8000; Layer 2 proliferation + RWA tokenization $10 billion market explosion
Neutral Forecast: $18,000–$20,000; ETF capital inflow + staking yields attract pension allocations.
Ark Invest: $170,000–$180,000; extreme model with a market cap accounting for 20% of gold by 2030.
Operational Suggestions
Short-Term Strategy:
If it breaks through $2636 with volume, consider buying in batches (stop-loss at $2580);
If it pulls back to the $2400–$2450 support zone, consider buying on dips (stop-loss at $2360).
Risk Control:
Avoid high leverage, closely monitor the effectiveness of the $2400 support and ETF approval progress.
Market volatility increases, recommend dynamically adjusting positions based on macro data (non-farm payroll, Fed policy).
