Recently, ETH has been fluctuating around $3800, and there is a heated debate between bears and bulls in the community. Some are shouting 'the bull is back', while others lament 'stuck for half a year', but to really break free, one must first understand the underlying logic of this market trend.
Current Core Market Conflict: Staking tide withdrawal vs. institutional entry.
News:
519,000 ETH are waiting to withdraw, but new players are lining up to take over.
The latest data shows that 519,000 ETH are applying to exit staking, the largest scale since January 2024. On the surface, it looks like 'retail investors cashing out', but the underlying reason is institutions adjusting their positions - for example, Grayscale has recently transferred some ETH to Coinbase, potentially for ETF positioning.
At the same time, 357,000 ETH are waiting to enter staking, with the queue extending over 6 days. What does this indicate? Old players are unstaking to cash out, while new funds are taking over at low levels, a typical 'high position handover, low position accumulation' scenario.
BlackRock's ETF conceals a 'staking feature', but funds are quietly withdrawing.
In the Ethereum ETF documents submitted by BlackRock last week, there are terms for staking yield distribution - if approved, ETF holders can not only profit from the price difference but also share in the staking rewards. However, data shows that ETHA saw a net outflow of $63.3 million last week, and Grayscale's ETHE has experienced continuous outflows for 9 days, losing over $7.28 million in a single day.
Historical Comparison: Before the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in 2023, BTC's price started to rise 3 months in advance, but after approval, it actually pulled back by 15%. Now that ETH ETF news is everywhere, the main players might be 'selling the fact' - first raising prices for retail investors to take over, and then dumping after approval to wash out the market.
Technical Analysis:
From the 4-hour K-line, ETH recently played a roller coaster in the $3700-$3800 range:
MACD histogram is shortening: Bear power is weakening, bulls are gaining strength;
KDJ Neutral (68): Neither overbought nor oversold, the market is waiting for direction.
Key Levels: Support at $3702, Resistance at $3833.
True rebound signal: If it breaks $3833 on volume and MACD shows a golden cross, then this pullback is 'airborne refueling'; if it falls below $3700, we need to see if $3600 can hold.
Team leader's strategy for breaking free: Targeting by situation.
Situation 1: Stuck above $3800.
1. Rebound Reduction: Wait for a pullback to $3830-$3850, then sell 30% of the position to lock in profits;
2. Bottom Fishing: If it drops to around $3700, accumulate in two phases to lower costs;
3. Stop-Loss Level: Unconditionally stop-loss if it falls below $3600, don’t go against the trend.
Situation 2: Empty position looking to bottom fish.
1. Incremental Buying: Buy 30% at $3700, 40% at $3600, and 30% at $3500;
2. Hedge Risk: Short 10% of the position with contracts to prevent short-term pullbacks;
3. Take Profit Level: Gradually take profits above $3830, keeping the core position for the long term.
Situation 3: Deeply stuck below $3500.
1. Long-term Holding: Institutional ETF + staking income as dual drivers, $3500 is the 'golden pit';
2. Exchange Time for Space: Use 10% of your salary each month for dollar-cost averaging to lower costs;
3. Don't touch leverage: Being liquidated at this position means real money down the drain; stability is key to winning.
If you don't know what an effective breakout is, you can come to find the team leader for a hands-on guide.
Are you stuck? Don’t know when to enter? Still the same, if you're confused and helpless and don’t know what to do, click on my profile to comment. I need fans, you need references!
$ETH