📉 1. Bitcoin (BTC) core trend
1. Price dynamics
- Currently reported at $117,780-$118,000, with a 24-hour decline of 0.58%-0.71%, pulling back from the previous day's high of $121,800, oscillating in the range of $115,000-$123,000.
- Key technical levels:
- Support: $115,530 (Bollinger Bands middle track), $112,000 (50-day moving average + psychological level).
- Resistance: $121,000 (recent high), $123,091 (historical high).
2. Technical signals
- Trend strength: ADX index 29 (>25 confirms an upward trend), RSI 60 (neutral to strong, not oversold).
- Risk signals: 4-hour chart shows volume-price divergence, daily chart faces high-level selling pressure (market average profit rate 57%).
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💸 2. Capital and institutional trends
1. ETF fund reversal
- Bitcoin spot ETF sees a net outflow of $199 million this week, ending six consecutive weeks of inflows, with clear signs of institutional profit-taking.
2. On-chain activity cools
- The number of active Bitcoin addresses drops to 721,086 (the lowest in the week), with DeFi protocols seeing $1.7 billion outflow in 24 hours, liquidity is shrinking.
3. Whale behavior
- A certain whale takes a long position on 7,200 ETH (about $26.3 million) with 20x leverage, showing that high-risk speculation continues.
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🌍 3. Macro and regulatory catalytic events
1. Policy risk
- White House report: A cryptocurrency asset policy report is set to be released on July 30, clarifying the U.S. government's disposal plan for BTC and regulatory framework, market sentiment is cautious.
- Bill progress: The U.S. (GENIUS Act) (stablecoin regulation) has taken effect, but (CLARITY Act) (anti-CBDC Act) is still pending Senate review, regulatory uncertainty suppresses risk appetite.
2. Global trade and monetary policy
- U.S.-EU tariff agreement: Base tariff set at 15%, easing trade war concerns, boosting U.S. stocks (S&P hits new highs) but not effectively transmitting to the crypto market.
- Fed rate cut expectations: Treasury Secretary hints at 1-2 rate cuts within the year, July 30 meeting minutes become a short-term focus.
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⚠️ 4. Altcoin and market sentiment
1. Mainstream coins decline
- ETH: Drops below $3,600 (24h drop of 1.67%), liquidation amount reaches $112 million, $3,300 becomes a key support.
- SOL/XRP: SOL falls 3.83% to $191.2, XRP falls 5.11% to $3.29, capital rotation stagnates.
- Meme coins: DOGE plummets 14%, speculative sentiment retreats.
2. Market sentiment indicators
- Fear and Greed Index: 70 (greed range), but derivatives open interest reaches $34 billion, liquidation risk is high.
🎯 5. Operational strategies and key nodes
1. Short-term (24-48 hours)
- Bulls: If BTC holds above $115,000, it can be accumulated in batches, and if it breaks above $121,000, increase positions; set a stop-loss at $112,000.
- Bears: If it rebounds above $120,000, consider shorting, target $116,000.
2. Risk warning
- Downward catalyst: If it loses $115,000, it may correct deeply to $113,000 (Fibonacci 0.618 level) or even $112,000.
- Event disturbance: July 30 Fed meeting + White House report may trigger a surge in volatility.
3. Long-term layout
- Accumulate in the range of 112,000-115,000, medium-term target of $138,000 (institutional average cost of $88,700 providing support).
💎 Summary
> "High-level consolidation, waiting for opportunities":
> Bitcoin's technical outlook remains a healthy correction, but ETF fund outflows + decreased on-chain activity suggest insufficient short-term momentum.
> Today's motto:
> - Holding 115,000 means strength remains, if lost, watch for 112,000;
> - Keep an eye on the double events on July 30 (Fed + White House report), a breakthrough is imminent!
(Risk warning: Leverage positions must have strict stop-losses, highly volatile altcoins are advised to be temporarily avoided)
