Macro focus on three data nodes:
July 30 20:15 ADP employment data, July 31 2:00 AM interest rate decision, August 1 20:30 unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data. A slight drop usually accompanies the data release, as some funds choose to leave the market to avoid risks.
Technically, the daily Bollinger Bands of Bitcoin are closing. There is a high probability of stepping back to 116000 at the beginning of August, but the probability of a sharp decline is low; the 4-hour level is consolidating sideways, without breaking new highs or new lows, showing a typical "sideways movement instead of falling" characteristic. After Bitcoin completes the retracement, mainstream coins will usher in a bottom-fishing window.
In terms of trend rhythm, August is generally bullish; if the interest rate cut is implemented in September, it may trigger "sell the news", and the market may adjust for a month; the fourth quarter is expected to usher in the last wave of rise, and after completing the distribution of chips at a high level, the bull market may be declared over.
