Ethereum short-term divergence + monthly gap, the beginning of August may see a pullback, attempt to build short positions
In the early morning, Ethereum once again showed slight downward adjustments, and overall it still belongs to the "gradual repair" phase within the technical structure. From the weekly pattern perspective, the gap left by this round of increase has only seen partial repair, and the TD pressure on the 2nd and 3rd lines remains unresolved, therefore the short-term strategy basically maintains yesterday's viewpoint unchanged: focusing on pullback repair as the main theme, waiting for the structure to be completed.
At the same time, I must remind everyone: tomorrow is the monthly line update node. Given that the July candlestick is a strong bullish line that has risen, it has led to a significant gap between the current coin price and the five-day moving average, which means that at the beginning of August, we will inevitably face a strong technical pullback pressure. Therefore, before this, the market is very likely to experience a structural pullback to alleviate the technical tension of the early month candlestick.
So from an operational perspective, it is recommended to continue to maintain a light short position at high levels, focusing on short trades, not overly greedy for profits, securing gains, and rolling operations are more stable.
From the daily structure perspective, although KDJ shows a slight upward stabilization signal, the overall trend still leans towards weak fluctuations, with the MACD death cross continuing, and trading volume continuously shrinking, showing a clear divergence with the coin price's oscillating rise. The increase in this structure is more of a passive support rather than an active offense.
In other words, at this position, the technical aspect does not dominate; the funding aspect is the focus. The traces of large holders or institutions protecting the market are quite obvious, and the market has entered a "controlled stability" phase. The more this is the case, the more we must guard against extreme market conditions caused by emotional imbalance, such as pulling up and then suddenly crashing after blowing up floating positions, leading to a “soul-return door” situation, where both technical and emotional aspects are hit hard.
To summarize the operational thoughts:
In the short term, maintain the expectation of Ethereum "structural repair + technical filling," with key support in the area of 3500-3367 below. It will be difficult to sustain a breakout above if there is no significant increase in trading volume.
Moreover, tomorrow's monthly line update will determine the strength and space of the next wave, whether there should be a pullback, how far the pullback will go, and whether there is any inertia for a crash; we will see the results tomorrow.
