VIEW #23 – $BTC BTC/USDT TONIGHT: “RANSOM” STYLE PRICE PUSH & DISTRIBUTION WATCH
🎯 Current Price: ~114,350
📈 24h Range: 112,650 – 114,972
🧠 CORE ANALYSIS – WHAT IS BTC DOING?
BTC is not truly breaking out of the trend, but is creating a “technical price push” to attract late longs and gradually distributing as the market lacks new capital.
• The price increase from the 112.6k zone to 114.9k is a “Ransom Candle” phase – a rapid price push accompanied by a strong RSI increase → attracting liquidity.
• RSI(6) on the 5P frame = 82.2 | RSI(12) on the 1H frame = 57–59 → high zone, warning of technical reversal risks.
• Volume breakout does not confirm OBV → large capital is not truly entering the market.
• The most recent 1H candle has retracted the upper wick + gradually decreasing volume → signs of weakening momentum.
🧨 PRICE SCENARIO & STRATEGY FOR TONIGHT
🎯 Scenario 1 – Main (65%)
BTC tests 114.5k – 115k then adjusts back to 112.8–113.5k
• Midcap altcoins may adjust accordingly, especially those coins that have just been “technically pushed” (LINK, ENS…)
• This is an optimal time to place technical SHORT orders with altcoins.
🎯 Scenario 2 – Secondary (35%)
BTC exceeds 115k if there is strong volume breakout from the 114.8k zone (currently none)
• Only enter LONG when BTC closes a 1H candle above 115k with volume exceeding 35k BTC
• If not – any increase is likely a trap.
💡 CONCLUSION – STRATEGIC VIEW
BTC is currently sideways – lightly pushing – attracting longs. There is no large capital confirming.
Altcoins have been pushed a bit too much, and short-term distribution signals are appearing.
