The institutional holding ratio of Ethereum ($ENA ) recently surpassed **30%** (a record high), coupled with a continuous inflow of spot ETF funds (over **$500 million** in a single week), resulting in a surge in short-term market sentiment. However, whether a 'super bull market' can be initiated depends on three core variables:

1. **Ecosystem Blood Generation Ability**: Whether the adoption rate of L2 (currently Arb/OP daily active users account for ~60% of Ethereum) and DEX trading volume (Q2 quarter-on-quarter +20%) can continue to grow;

2. **Deflationary Continuity**: The current annualized deflation rate is 0.8%. If on-chain Gas demand decreases, it may weaken value capture;

3. **Competitor Diversion**: High-performance chains like Solana are vying for institutional funds (their ETF applications have been put on the agenda).

If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September + Ethereum staking yield remains **3.5%+** (higher than US Treasuries), institutional allocation demand may drive a breakthrough of previous highs, but caution is needed regarding high Gas fees and regulatory variables (the SEC has not clearly stated ETH's security attributes).