Bitcoin whales continue to accumulate, are you still selling? 🤔 If Powell's speech tonight does not bring good news, can the market still rise? The following analysis covers technical aspects, on-chain data, whale positions, Ethereum trends, and macro environment to interpret market insights.
1. Technical aspect: Shrinking volume and clear bottoming signals.
Daily line: Yesterday closed with a bearish engulfing line, but trading volume shrank and bullish momentum increased; price fluctuates around the lower Bollinger band, with the band narrowing, volatility decreasing, and direction choice approaching.
Indicators: MACD bearish momentum bars are narrowing, RSI shows a bottom divergence, and downward momentum is gradually depleting.
Structure: 4-hour level shows a 'decreasing amplitude of decline' descending wedge (typical reversal pattern).
Confirmation of reversal: Daily line closes with long lower shadow / bullish engulfing, and quickly stands above 116000 (50-day moving average and 0.382 Fibonacci level) further target 119800 (0.618 gap).
Prediction: Likely to build a bottom near 112000 (similar to a W bottom) and then push towards 128000.
2. On-chain data: No large-scale profit-taking at new highs.
Realized profit indicators show: 73000, 100000, and 112000 levels all have significant profit-taking peaks, while at the historical high of 124500, realized profits are relatively low.
Conclusion: Large funds did not sell at new highs, forming a bullish divergence, and funds believe the current situation is not a top of the bull market, with further upward space still available.
3. Whale positions: Continuously accumulating, no signs of a top.
Whales (addresses holding 1000-10000 coins) are 'smart money', having reduced holdings in advance at the end of the bull markets in 2017 and 2021; in this round of the bull market, they only reduced holdings in phases at 73000 and 109000, and significantly reduced positions near 96000 at the end of 2024.
Current situation: Whales continue to accumulate, with no signs of selling.
Interpretation: Current downside space is limited (otherwise whales would have fled), the bull market is not over, whale accumulation supports price upward; only when whales massively reduce holdings and on-chain data shows a downward trend will it signal the peak of the bull market.
4. Ethereum: Trend stronger than Bitcoin, structure standard 🌐
Operation review: Last night around 4215 notified others to enter ETH, dropped to a low of 4200, rebounded to 4310 to take some profits, average position at 4260, currently floating profit.
Trend: The structure is more standard than Bitcoin, having completed a breakout retest; breaking 4400 will expand the upward space, if BTC successfully builds a bottom at 112000, ETH is likely to continue strengthening.
5. Macro environment: M2 liquidity is the core driver 💹
Market focus: Powell's speech tonight, entangled in interest rate hike/cut wording, but the core logic is M2 liquidity rather than a single interest rate policy.
Current situation: Global M2 is at a historical high, with ample funds, no need for interest rate cuts to stimulate risk assets (like during Trump's era in 2017, where the Fed raised rates but global M2 expanded, and risk assets continued to rise).
Key reminder: Whether to cut interest rates is the market narrative; the liquidity cycle is the true driver; Bitcoin is at the end of the bull market, and the short-term direction is still upwards, but global M2 has turned downwards, even if interest rates are cut later, it will be difficult to reverse; Bitcoin prices lag M2 by about 80 days, with significant market movements expected to end before the year.
Overall judgment and conclusion 📌
Overall judgment: Bitcoin is in a bottoming phase, short-term fluctuations do not change the medium-term upward trend, with 128000, 145000, and 160000 as important future targets.
Conclusion: Market fluctuations in the late bull market can easily be influenced by emotions, patience and confidence are needed, and following data and trends is essential to grasp the market.
I generally do not speak, always appearing at critical moments.
