I have been studying blockchain knowledge for the past few months and started observing the cryptocurrency space this month.

I have communicated with many people in the cryptocurrency space. To be honest, compared to them, I am not a pure speculator. I have been told that I am overly idealistic, but I have had the fortune to observe the spectacular scene of a market crash.

I want to share my own observations and thoughts (not having experienced bull and bear markets, and as a novice, my thoughts may differ; feel free to discuss in the comments):

BTC & ETH & SOL:

Ethereum went from 1300 in April to 4900 now.

Bitcoin went from 74000 in April to 112000 now.

It is well known that in this round of market movements, ETH's momentum clearly surpasses BTC. According to previous data, the leading coins in a bull market are usually BTC. I remember when I entered in April, the popularity of SOL even exceeded that of ETH.

In July 2019, Trump publicly stated his opposition to cryptocurrencies.

In July 2024, he changed his attitude to show a close stance. Many believe he is simply trying to garner votes, but given my high estimation of Trump, it definitely won't be that simple. I searched for historical data on Solana, and although I hadn't entered the market back then, the attention on the Solana chain was entirely due to Trump issuing his own TRUMP coin in January 2025. I believe Trump's layout had already quietly begun at that time. (Here we must remember, it was Trump who chose Solana.)

Speaking of ETH, I remember a technical upgrade took place in May, but many bloggers analyzed this upgrade at that time. I don't understand the technology, but I recall that the market's response was relatively tepid; most investors were not convinced, and the price only broke and stabilized at 2100 two days after the upgrade was announced.

Let's talk about the well-known reasons driving the price of ETH this round:

1. Large institutions such as BlackRock, Vanguard Group, and Fidelity Investments have significantly flowed into Ethereum;

2. Companies like BMNR, SharpLink, DYNX, etc., are laying out Ethereum assets through spot ETFs;

3. The recent 'Genius Act' passed in the U.S., the regulatory structure provided by the SEC, presidential executive orders, and strategic reserves, etc.

Here we must reflect: why have large institutions chosen ETH? Instead of the nominal leader BTC or the U.S.-designated token SOL? If we only look at the data aspect of ETH, I believe its performance is not sufficient to support this round of price movements. Some may say that manipulators will only pump one coin, or that ETH has a lot of scalability in its application layer. We all know that the U.S. is a hegemonic country and will never give up SOL simply because ETH's technology looks impressive right now; ETH still has Vitalik, who insists on decentralization and has idealistic views, and who has a fondness for China.

Here I have two points of view:

First: Choosing ETH allows it to stimulate the development of other chain technologies, leaving energy to slowly layout and conceal, allowing time for capital to arrange, obscuring the truth.

Second: Let capital crazily wash out ETH, ultimately achieving the goal of controlling and hijacking ETH, and ETH will eventually become a puppet chain of the United States, which can restrain global blockchain applications and can be abandoned at any time.

Third: I believe the U.S. will ultimately support SOL.

(On August 7, 2025: Vitalik publicly expressed concerns about institutional holdings of ETH for the first time on the Bankless podcast. On August 9: Vitalik reiterated his concerns about institutional holdings of ETH, pointing out that if ETH's collapse three years later was due to government bonds, he would believe these companies might have entered a highly leveraged game, leading to forced liquidation and ultimately causing ETH's collapse.)

Then let's take a look at Trump's recent performance. Trump's appearance has completely broken the previous investment strategies of cryptocurrency investors. Today's investors no longer rely on so-called analytical data or news for investment. Trump alone relies on his words to pump and dump prices, using tariffs, wars, and interest rate cuts as reasons, releasing messages that are sometimes bullish and sometimes bearish. He has truly taken his thick skin and knack for exaggeration to the extreme, providing cover for the manipulators, allowing them to wash out and clean up leveraged retail investors, obscuring the truth. Today's investors no longer need to watch the market; they just need to focus on Trump. This is the current market situation: on one side, the issue of U.S. debt has been resolved, this trouble has been controlled by a decentralized community, and then mastering this decentralized tool to counter the traditional financial forces that previously disliked him, eliminating dissent. With stablecoins globally siphoning resources, do you still think Trump is that absurd, small-time businessman who only seeks profit?

If you are here, will you still choose to bravely venture into the cryptocurrency space, making high-leverage bets as an aggressive speculator?

Do you still believe that stablecoins are just foreign things that can be avoided by blocking them outside the wall?

This is a financial war. It may have a hint of conspiracy theory. I couldn't organize my thoughts in time, so just take a look.

Now trapped, waiting:

1. This week, the Bitcoin Asia Conference was held in Hong Kong, attended personally by Trump's son.

2. Peace negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war; Trump must want to achieve some political results.

3. The big conspiracy of the Fed's interest rate cut in September.

All these events need data to support them, and the manipulators control the market to provide the data Trump wants at critical moments. This is also an opportunity for everyone to potentially break free; get off early, and gamblers stay away.

Finally, let's think again. Since this is a war, if the manipulators behind the price crash are not them, then who else could it be? (Has the Huaihai Campaign already started?) When gods fight, ordinary people should best refrain from participating.

[mb. Trapped...]

2025.08.25#小白勇闯币圈