As a retail investor in the cryptocurrency market, I would like to share my views on the upcoming BTC market trend.
I know everyone is eager, so let me first address two pressing questions:
1. Can we buy the dip for BTC now?
It hasn't dropped to the right level yet, but there are short-term opportunities.
2. Should we sell BTC now and buy back later?
I personally lean more towards buying on the dip to lower the average cost.
Because my BTC holdings are mostly from regular investments, there has been some loss this time, but I have prepared some capital, however, I believe it is not yet the best time to truly buy the dip.
Next, I will analyze what I believe are the reasons for the decline:
1. The backlash of BTC ETF
It is important to know that the emergence of BTC was to counter the traditional financial system, defined as 'digital gold.' However, with the recent entry of Wall Street players, the rapid rise in BTC prices has also changed its own structure.
Now, the US stock market is moving together, and the outflow of ETFs will inevitably lead to a sell-off of BTC.
2. The false proposition of 'digital gold'
At the end of last month, when the local conflict between Iran and Israel broke out, Bitcoin was the first to plummet, and its hedging attribute is becoming weaker. Coupled with the surge in gold and silver, people are starting to realize:
When a real crisis arrives, everyone still trusts the US dollar in hand and the gold under the bed more. BTC is just a 'small follower' of the US dollar, and during tense moments, it is often the first one to be sacrificed.
3. Kevin Warsh appointed as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve
He is a typical representative of the hawks and will not easily rescue the market, but will firmly maintain the value of the US dollar, which further exacerbates market pressures.
4. The Epstein email decryption storm (a bit abstract)
Multiple factors lead to a common result. It's quite ironic that there are almost no retail investors left in the crypto market now; old investors either dollar-cost average or play dead, leaving only a few institutions fighting fiercely, making it very fragile. This is also the reason for the sharp drop this time, as there are fewer voices in the community.
Stick to the crypto market and recharge your faith.
You guys actually don't have to be anxious; if you look at the long-term K-line, a few years ago, the more than 60,000 BTC was a point we didn't even dare to dream of. If someone had said that Bitcoin would rise above 100,000, I would have thought they were crazy. So, this sharp drop is essentially a reset of market expectations: it was previously too optimistic, naively thinking that Trump would just wave his hand for brainless rises, naively thinking that the dollar would collapse instantly, and naively thinking that retail investors would always pick up the pieces...
I believe this is a great opportunity to allow us to more clearly examine the market. What will truly remain are those who recognize the value of decentralization and the institutions that silently dollar-cost average at low levels.
No pain, no gain; the struggle for the value of the US dollar will continue. In a market of stock game, I firmly believe that BTC will usher in its next glory.#BTC #何时抄底？