Post
--
TVBee
·
--
【xjb Analysis】The big pancake has fallen to this position, and for the main force (institution), continuing to sell is not very significant for them anymore.
┈┈➤ The following selling pressure may mainly come from retail investors and ETFs.
In the spot market, it has already fallen to the previous round's high point, and at this time, it may not be far from the bottom. The main force (institution) has a large amount of capital, and at this position, it is no longer suitable for a main wave.
In the contract market, as the experienced drivers say, there is nothing left to explode on the long positions.
Of course, looking at the market, there are currently no signs of stopping the decline.
Next, it may be some panicking retail investors selling their spot holdings.
In addition, the US stock market may have some demand for a pullback, and there may also be some selling pressure from ETFs.
But it shouldn't be too panicky; BTC often reacts more swiftly than the US stock market and has already fallen first.
┈┈➤ The main force's buying has not yet entered the market.
However, the trading volume is still not large, and the current trading volume does not match the declines in April last year and from October to November; the main force's buying has not yet entered the market.
┈┈➤ xjb Prediction
In the short term, look at the daily US market time and whether the weekly chart will show increased volume.
After the weekly chart shows increased volume, there may be a slight rebound, similar to the second half of 2022, which will mainly be horizontal fluctuations. This is not a case of carving a boat to seek a sword; in a bear market, it is difficult to have a V-shaped reversal and requires a longer repair phase.
In the end, there will be a second probe; the specific amplitude of this second probe will depend on the influence of events at that time. However, this time point should not be at the end of the year; it may be related to the recent US-Iran events, or it could be around May to June when Walsh takes office, or around September.
┈┈➤ Final Note
Bee Brother's personal opinion is that the liquidity black swan will be very severe. In fact, the BCH fork hash war at the end of 2018 had liquidity bearishness, with both BCH and BSV selling BTC to compete for hash power.
The collapse of Luna in mid-2022 and the bankruptcy of Three Arrows Capital were both liquidity bearish events. The collapse of FTX at the end of 2022 was essentially also a liquidity bearish event.
In this round of liquidity risk, Bee Brother briefly looked at the microstrategy's financial report; it should have been fine six months ago, but the second half is uncertain. On the contrary, the leveraged futures of ETH might have a greater risk.
Whether Walsh's policy is loose or tight is also a very important factor affecting liquidity.
As for events like the US-Iran situation, they do not involve liquidity factors, so the impact is relatively limited.
┈┈➤ The following selling pressure may mainly come from retail investors and ETFs.
In the spot market, it has already fallen to the previous round's high point, and at this time, it may not be far from the bottom. The main force (institution) has a large amount of capital, and at this position, it is no longer suitable for a main wave.
In the contract market, as the experienced drivers say, there is nothing left to explode on the long positions.
Of course, looking at the market, there are currently no signs of stopping the decline.
Next, it may be some panicking retail investors selling their spot holdings.
In addition, the US stock market may have some demand for a pullback, and there may also be some selling pressure from ETFs.
But it shouldn't be too panicky; BTC often reacts more swiftly than the US stock market and has already fallen first.
┈┈➤ The main force's buying has not yet entered the market.
However, the trading volume is still not large, and the current trading volume does not match the declines in April last year and from October to November; the main force's buying has not yet entered the market.
┈┈➤ xjb Prediction
In the short term, look at the daily US market time and whether the weekly chart will show increased volume.
After the weekly chart shows increased volume, there may be a slight rebound, similar to the second half of 2022, which will mainly be horizontal fluctuations. This is not a case of carving a boat to seek a sword; in a bear market, it is difficult to have a V-shaped reversal and requires a longer repair phase.
In the end, there will be a second probe; the specific amplitude of this second probe will depend on the influence of events at that time. However, this time point should not be at the end of the year; it may be related to the recent US-Iran events, or it could be around May to June when Walsh takes office, or around September.
┈┈➤ Final Note
Bee Brother's personal opinion is that the liquidity black swan will be very severe. In fact, the BCH fork hash war at the end of 2018 had liquidity bearishness, with both BCH and BSV selling BTC to compete for hash power.
The collapse of Luna in mid-2022 and the bankruptcy of Three Arrows Capital were both liquidity bearish events. The collapse of FTX at the end of 2022 was essentially also a liquidity bearish event.
In this round of liquidity risk, Bee Brother briefly looked at the microstrategy's financial report; it should have been fine six months ago, but the second half is uncertain. On the contrary, the leveraged futures of ETH might have a greater risk.
Whether Walsh's policy is loose or tight is also a very important factor affecting liquidity.
As for events like the US-Iran situation, they do not involve liquidity factors, so the impact is relatively limited.