First, let me share my view. The current position, and even the recent low of 60K, is by no means the bottom of this round. I believe the bottom of this round needs to go down two more rounds. Not 60K, not 50K, BTC only needs to reach 40K for you to take it home.

First, why is 60K not the bottom? What supports my view?

1/ From the perspective of the time cycle
Looking at the cycle of BTC, there has never been a bear market lasting only 4 months. The last peak was in November 2021, and the beginning of the bottom range was about a year later, with around 14 months to move out of the bottom range. From the perspective of the time cycle, we are far from the bottom range during this period.

Looking at the previous round, the peak was in December 2017, and it took about a year to reach the beginning of the bottom range, with about 17 months to emerge from the bottom range.

2/ From the price range perspective
From the last bull and bear market, the bull market peak was 69000, the bottom was around 15000, which retraced about 78%, while this round is 126000, the current lowest is 60000, and the retracement is only about 52%.

From the previous bull and bear market perspective, the bull market peak was around 20000, the bottom was around 3200, which retraced about 84%, far exceeding the current retracement magnitude.

3/ From the market sentiment perspective
I mentioned in a previous article what a true bottom is: when everyone has run out of bullets or no one dares to buy the dip anymore. The last bottom range took a full two months to emerge, and very few dared to buy the dip. Currently, the market sentiment is very strong for buying the dip.

The bottom of the previous round was also a very calm emotional range, where it took four months to emerge, and similarly, no one dared to buy the dip.

Then, where do I think the bottom range will be?

The high point in 2017 retraced about 84%, falling from around 20000 to around 3200.

The high point in 2021 retraced about 78%, falling from 69000 to around 15000.

Because how do we view this bear market's bottom range?

1/ The high point in 2017 took about a year to reach the bottom range, spending about 4-5 months grinding through the bottom range. The high point in 2021 took about a year to reach the bottom range, spending about 2 and a half months grinding through the bottom range.

Therefore, it can be roughly judged that the time for this round to descend from the high point to the bottom range may be in October 2026, and the time spent in the bottom range may be even less, perhaps emerging within two months, that is, before December 2026.

2/ The high point in 2017 retraced about 84%, and the high point in 2021 retraced about 78%.

Therefore, it can be roughly judged that the retracement in this round will be smaller. First, it can be ensured that it will be below 78%, so it will definitely not reach 27720. Approaching this position is absolutely worth buying the dip. If calculated arithmetically, with a retracement of 72%, it would be about 35280. If calculated geometrically, with a retracement of 66.5%, it would be about 42210.

Therefore, my conclusion is

BTC is expected to reach the range of 35K ～ 42K in October 2026, and the bottom sideways consolidation will emerge from this range in about 2 months. Once it breaks below 42K, it can be safely bought, as this is the best buying point.