Binance News

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate increase — exactly in line with market expectations. The decision itself carried no surprise. The immediate market reaction, however, reflected the interpretation of what accompanied it.
The immediate market reaction
According to Bitget data, spot gold briefly fell more than $40 following the decision — a sharp move suggesting the accompanying statement or dot plot contained language more hawkish than gold bulls had positioned for. The US Dollar Index briefly rose 35 points, consistent with a hawkish read of the Fed's communication — a stronger dollar typically follows signals of tighter-for-longer monetary policy.
Bitcoin briefly fell more than 1% on the news, currently trading at $65,417 — a modest pullback from the $65,000-$66,000 range it had been holding through Wednesday's pre-decision session. The limited scale of Bitcoin's decline relative to gold's $40 drop suggests crypto markets are not interpreting the reaction as a severe hawkish shock, but rather as a recalibration toward the hawkish hold scenario that 55% of BofA fund managers had anticipated.
Context: the fourth hold in a row
The hold extends the Fed's pause to four consecutive meetings — a streak that spans the tail end of Jerome Powell's tenure and now the beginning of Kevin Warsh's chairmanship. Each of those holds has been accompanied by an evolving and increasingly hawkish set of conditions: inflation accelerating from approximately 3.3% to 4.2%, rate cut expectations being progressively removed, and rate hike discussions entering the mainstream after being largely absent from market pricing earlier in 2026.
Wednesday's hold occurs against the most constructively changed macro backdrop of that entire four-meeting stretch — oil at $75, core CPI beating at 0.2% monthly, the US-Iran peace deal confirmed with Hormuz reopening Friday. Whether Warsh's statement and press conference acknowledged that improved backdrop or maintained a purely higher-for-longer posture will determine whether today's gold and dollar reaction proves transient or sets the tone for the week ahead.
What comes next
The dot plot and Warsh's press conference language — rather than the rate decision itself — will drive the market's sustained interpretation over the following hours and days. Gold's $40 drop and the dollar's 35-point spike are immediate, reflexive reactions to the first read of the statement. Bitcoin's 1% dip is similarly a first-order response. As Warsh speaks and as the dot plot's specifics are digested — particularly whether the median projection has shifted from one cut to no cuts or toward explicit hike projections — the reaction will either extend or reverse.
With Bitcoin at $65,417 and Friday's Geneva signing of the US-Iran memorandum approaching on a Juneteenth holiday with reduced market liquidity, the stage is set for a volatile and potentially definitive few days in determining whether Standard Chartered's "crypto Spring" thesis and Kendrick's $83,000 reclaim target become the operative framework for the second half of 2026.

England produced the most entertaining performance of their tournament so far in a breathless 4–2 victory over Croatia, while DR Congo announced themselves to the world by holding Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal to a dramatic 1–1 draw. Colombia eased past World Cup debutants Uzbekistan with a composed 3–1 win, and Ghana snatched the points against Panama thanks to a last-gasp goal deep into stoppage time — a fittingly pulsating end to a day full of drama across Groups K and L.
In Group L, England's World Cup campaign began in chaotic, thrilling fashion at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Harry Kane gave Thomas Tuchel's side the lead on 12 minutes, converting a penalty at the second attempt after VAR ruled that Croatia goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic had strayed off his line to save the first effort. The Bayern Munich striker, who equalled Gary Lineker's England record of 10 World Cup goals with his second of the night, had researched Livakovic's tendency to move early — and the tactical gamble paid off handsomely. Croatia hit back through Martin Baturina's powerful drive on 36 minutes, before Kane restored England's advantage with a clinical header from Declan Rice's corner three minutes before half-time. England's defending, however, remained alarmingly porous: Petar Musa levelled once more for Croatia with virtually the last kick of the first half, steering Ivan Perišić's header past Jordan Pickford. Tuchel's half-time response was emphatic. Jude Bellingham, selected ahead of Morgan Rogers in one of the tournament's first tight calls, ended the debate moments after the restart with a surging run and composed finish that turned the game decisively. Substitute Marcus Rashford wrapped up a 4–2 win with five minutes to go, converting after a swift counter-attack to leave Tuchel celebrating with compatriot and pundit Jürgen Klopp on the touchline. England's attack was a joy; their defence a concern — but for now, the Three Lions are up and running in Group L.
Also in Group L, Ghana denied Panama a share of the spoils in the most dramatic fashion in Toronto. The two sides served up a tight, attritional contest before substitute Brandon Thomas-Asante raced down the left in the 95th minute and squared for Caleb Yirenkyi to tap home from close range, sparking wild celebrations among the West African supporters. It was a cruel outcome for Panama, who had matched Ghana throughout and went agonisingly close through Cristian Martinez, who struck the side-netting from close range in the second half. Ghana were themselves without Thomas Partey, denied entry to Canada due to ongoing criminal proceedings in the UK — a notable absentee. The late winner gives Ghana three points and sets up a fascinating encounter with Group L leaders England next.
In Group K, the evening's most talked-about result unfolded as DR Congo produced a stunning fightback to hold Portugal to a 1–1 draw. It was an occasion that reignited the debate around Cristiano Ronaldo's place in the Portugal team — and his impact on those around him. Portugal took the lead through a first-half goal, but DR Congo equalised through Brentford striker Yannick Wissa, who headed home to score his nation's first-ever World Cup goal — a moment of historic significance for a country making its debut in the tournament. Ronaldo — operating under immense scrutiny as he bids to become the greatest scorer in World Cup history — passed up a key chance when his run disrupted a potential pass to Bruno Fernandes, who was free inside the penalty area. Pundits including Thierry Henry and Gael Clichy were outspoken about the 41-year-old's influence on his team-mates, with Henry arguing Ronaldo's desire to score personally had cost Portugal a second goal. The draw leaves Group K wide open at the halfway point of the first round of fixtures.
Colombia, meanwhile, provided the night's most composed display, defeating World Cup debutants Uzbekistan 3–1 at the Mexico City Stadium. Daniel Muñoz volleyed a brilliant opener to set Colombia on their way, and despite Abdullaev Fayzullaev heading home an equaliser to raise hopes for the Uzbek crowd, Luis Díaz restored Colombia's lead with a clinical finish. Jaminton Campaz added gloss to the scoreline deep into second-half stoppage time, heading home a pinpoint cross from Cucho Hernández who had refused to give up on a late run down the right. Uzbekistan, managed by legendary Italian defender Fabio Cannavaro, had pressed gamely in the second half and hit the crossbar late on through Bekhruz Karimov, but Colombia's quality told in the end. Colombia top Group K and look every inch a side capable of going deep into this tournament.
Upcoming Matches for June 18 (all times ET):
12:00 PM, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta — Czechia vs. South Africa (Group A)
3:00 PM, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles — Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group B)
6:00 PM, BC Place, Vancouver — Canada vs. Qatar (Group B)
9:00 PM, Estadio BBVA, Guadalajara — Mexico vs. South Korea (Group A)

The Federal Reserve's June meeting delivered exactly the hawkish shock that Capital Economics and Guggenheim Investments had warned about — and then some. Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal reporter widely regarded as the Fed's unofficial communications channel, described the outcome in unambiguous terms: the dot plot showed a clear hawkish bias, and the policy statement was completely revised from beginning to end.The dot plot: 9 expect hikes, 6 expect multiple hikes, only 1 expects a cutOf the 18 officials who submitted projections, 9 now expect at least one rate hike in 2026 — representing exactly half the committee. Six of those 18 project multiple hikes this year. Only one official expects a rate cut in 2026. This is a dramatic shift from March's dot plot, which showed a median of one cut in 2026 — the starting point that most analysts had expected would move to "no cuts" at this meeting.The outcome significantly exceeded the hawkish scenario that Guggenheim's Patricia Zobel had flagged — "several participants with rate hikes as base case, some possibly with two hikes" — which now appears to have been an accurate preview of exactly what arrived.One participant — presumed to be new Chair Kevin Warsh — did not submit a Summary of Economic Projections at all. This is consistent with Stephen Brown of Capital Economics' speculation that Warsh might withhold his own dot, and reflects Warsh's previously stated skepticism about the Fed's forecasting and communication apparatus. The absence of Warsh's projection creates its own ambiguity: the dot plot's hawkish lean reflects the committee's views, but the chair's personal rate path remains officially unstated.The policy statement: completely rewritten, dramatically shortenedThe policy statement underwent what Timiraos described as a complete revision from beginning to end, with significantly shortened text. This is the Warsh communication overhaul that the market had anticipated in theory but may not have fully priced in practice. A dramatically shortened statement removes the forward guidance scaffolding that markets have been using to anchor rate path expectations — exactly the outcome Warsh had signaled through his prior criticism of Fed overcommunication.The combination of a hawkish dot plot and a stripped-down statement creates a specific kind of uncertainty: the committee has told markets that rate hikes are on the table (through the projections) while simultaneously removing much of the language that would have explained the conditions under which those hikes would or would not occur (through the shortened statement). Markets must now interpret intentions without the detailed guidance they have relied on under prior Fed leadership.What this means for marketsThe immediate reaction — gold down $40, the dollar index up 35 points, Bitcoin briefly down 1% to $65,417 — now has clear explanatory context. The dot plot's hawkish shift and the statement's complete rewrite landed as a genuine communication shock rather than simply a routine hold with minor language adjustments.With 9 of 18 officials projecting hikes and 6 projecting multiple hikes, the December rate hike that Capital Economics had called as "more likely than not" is now validated by more than half the committee's stated projections. The January 2027 timeline that markets had priced as the earliest potential hike — following oil's decline to $75 — may need to be pulled forward in response to today's dot plot, which specifically covers the remainder of 2026.For Bitcoin and crypto markets, K33's Vetle Lunde's observation that BTC's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 sits near 0.6 and that Bitcoin "tends to be particularly sensitive to macro developments during bear markets" makes the hawkish dot plot outcome the most significant single data point of the current correction cycle from a policy perspective. The macro narrative that drove the $5.72 billion in ETF outflows since mid-May — higher-for-longer inflation, hawkish Fed, rate hike risk — has now been explicitly validated by the committee's own projections rather than simply inferred from data.The 60-day tension aheadCritically, today's hawkish dot plot is being delivered simultaneously with the US-Iran peace deal's Strait of Hormuz reopening scheduled for Friday — a genuinely disinflationary development that, if sustained, would mechanically reduce the energy-driven inflation pressure that has pushed CPI to 4.2% and motivated the hawkish committee shift. The 60-day negotiation window for the substantive deal terms means the oil price trajectory over the next two months will directly test whether the 9 officials projecting 2026 rate hikes maintain that view or walk it back as energy-driven inflation eases.Warsh's communication framework — a shorter statement, an absent personal dot, a press conference whose tone will define how markets interpret the gap between the committee's hawkish projections and the chair's own unstated views — has fundamentally changed the information environment that crypto and traditional markets have been navigating. The adjustment to that new framework begins now.

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday — the fourth consecutive meeting without a move, exactly in line with market expectations. The rate decision was a non-event. What wasn't a non-event was the dot plot and the completely rewritten policy statement that accompanied it.
The immediate market reaction
According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly fell over 1% following the decision, currently trading at $65,417. Spot gold dropped more than $40 in the short term according to Bitget data, while the US Dollar Index rose 35 points — a classic risk-off, dollar-strength reaction that typically follows a hawkish Fed signal rather than a neutral or dovish one.
The three-asset reaction tells a coherent story. Gold's $40 drop reflects higher-for-longer rate expectations reducing the appeal of non-yielding precious metals — the same dynamic that has weighed on gold throughout the current cycle. The dollar's 35-point surge reflects the market repricing the rate path higher, making dollar-denominated assets more attractive relative to global alternatives. Bitcoin's 1% decline fits within the same framework — as a non-yielding, risk-sensitive asset with a 0.6 correlation to the S&P 500, BTC responds to hawkish Fed signals with the same directional logic as gold, though at a smaller initial magnitude.
Why the reaction happened: the dot plot delivered a genuine hawkish shock
The 1% Bitcoin dip and gold's $40 fall are not reactions to the rate hold itself — that was 97% priced before the meeting. They are reactions to what the dot plot revealed: 9 of 18 submitting officials now project rate hikes in 2026, with 1 projecting 75 basis points of increases, 5 projecting 50 basis points, and 3 projecting 25 basis points. Only 8 officials see rates unchanged through year-end, and just 1 projects a cut.
This distribution significantly exceeded the hawkish scenarios most analysts had flagged as tail risks. Guggenheim's Patricia Zobel had warned of "several participants with rate hikes as base case" — the actual outcome was exactly half the submitting committee projecting hikes. Capital Economics' Stephen Brown had called two insurance hikes "more likely than not" — five officials explicitly project exactly that.
Nick Timiraos — the Wall Street Journal's Fed correspondent and widely regarded as the central bank's unofficial communications channel — described the outcome as a "clear hawkish bias" in the dot plot and noted that the policy statement had been completely rewritten from beginning to end, with significantly shortened text. Chair Warsh did not submit his own projections — the first Fed chair in recent memory to decline participation in the Summary of Economic Projections — leaving his personal rate path officially unstated.
The restraint in Bitcoin's reaction is itself informative
Bitcoin's 1% decline, while directionally expected, is notably smaller than gold's $40 drop in percentage terms. At $65,417, Bitcoin remains approximately 10% above its $59,375 cycle low reached on June 5. The relatively modest reaction suggests that while the dot plot's hawkishness was a genuine surprise, it has not fundamentally altered the accumulation dynamics that have developed since the cycle low — 259,000 BTC bought between $59,000 and $67,000, Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score at 1.0 for more than two weeks, and long-term holders controlling a record 79% of supply.
The offsetting variable: Friday's Geneva signing
The hawkish dot plot's impact on the rate path is inherently conditional on the inflation trajectory that motivates it. The primary driver of the committee's hawkish shift — energy-driven CPI at 4.2%, the highest in three years — is the same variable that Friday's US-Iran memorandum signing addresses directly. With Brent at $75 and the Strait of Hormuz reopening Friday, the 9 officials projecting 2026 hikes are doing so based on an inflation picture that may look materially different by the time the July or September FOMC meetings arrive if oil normalization proceeds as the deal framework suggests.
The tension between today's hawkish dot plot and Friday's disinflationary catalyst defines the next chapter of the crypto market's macro narrative — and likely the next phase of Bitcoin's recovery or its continuation of the lower-highs pattern that Standard Chartered's Kendrick has identified as requiring $83,000 to invalidate.

According to CNBC, outgoing CME Group CEO Terrence Duffy announced on Wednesday that the exchange operator will file a lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Thursday, challenging the agency's decision to approve perpetual futures. The CFTC approved prediction market platform Kalshi in late May to offer bitcoin perpetual futures — contracts with no expiration date that allow traders to speculate on price without holding the underlying asset — marking the first time such products were permitted in the US. Kalshi has since expanded its perps offerings to cover additional cryptocurrencies. Duffy, who will step down as CEO in March 2027, argued the products constitute swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act, and asserted that CME holds exclusive benchmark licenses requiring any such instruments to be listed through the exchange regardless of their structure. He said the litigation plan had been developed with his board over the past eight months. CFTC chair Michael Selig defended the agency's approval earlier this week on the same program, saying it was "time to approve regulated futures contracts that have no expiration date" and pledging to ensure the products remain well regulated domestically.

Strategy said its Bitcoin holdings can cover 32 years of dividend payments. According to NS3.AI, STRC closed below $90 on June 17, marking an all-time low.

Kevin Warsh presides over his first Federal Reserve interest-rate meeting Wednesday with markets unified on one thing — rates will stay at 3.50%-3.75% — but deeply divided on almost everything else: the dot plot's direction, whether forward guidance language survives, whether Warsh will sound more or less hawkish than expected, and what the US-Iran deal changes about the inflation outlook heading into the second half of 2026.
The inheritance: a hawkish committee, five years above 2% inflation
Warsh is generally perceived as dovish — but the committee he is inheriting is not. "While Warsh is generally perceived as dovish, he will inherit a committee that has become noticeably more hawkish," said Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. "Warsh's first challenge will not be steering the committee toward easier policy, but demonstrating that his decisions are grounded in economic fundamentals rather than political considerations."
The inflation backdrop he inherits is challenging. Headline CPI breached 4% in May — the highest in three years — while producer prices businesses paid soared 6.5%. Core inflation, excluding energy, rose nearly 3%. Inflation has now been above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years. A strong job market and resilient consumer spending mean the economy is not visibly breaking under the weight of elevated rates — removing the most obvious justification for near-term cuts.
The dot plot: from one cut to a hawkish shift
The dot plot — where all 19 FOMC members project their rate expectations — is the most concrete signal the meeting will produce. In March, the median projection showed one rate cut this year. Most analysts expect Wednesday's updated dot plot to move that median to no cuts in 2026.
More significantly, several members are expected to project rate hikes as their base case. "I think you're going to see a hawkish shift in the dot plot," said Patricia Zobel, head of Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy at Guggenheim Investments. "You're going to see several participants who have rate hikes as a base case this year, some possibly with two rate hikes this year as a modal case."
Capital Economics chief North America economist Stephen Brown went further: "Two insurance hikes are now more likely than not in December and early next year." Brown described the primary risk as Warsh sounding more hawkish than expected — either through miscommunication or because his views have shifted from the more dovish positioning he held when seeking Trump's nomination.
The forward guidance question: cut, hike, or say nothing
Multiple Fed insiders expect the committee to drop language signaling a future rate cut from the statement entirely. What replaces it — language signaling that cuts or hikes are equally possible, or no forward-looking statement at all — will be the linguistic battleground of Wednesday's release.
Warsh has previously criticized the Fed's overcommunication, and Brown speculated he may not even submit his own dot plot projection. The press conference will test whether Warsh can communicate uncertainty without either reigniting concerns about Fed independence (by sounding too aligned with Trump's rate-cut preferences) or surprising markets with unexpected hawkishness.
"The risk for markets is that Warsh will sound more hawkish than expected, either due to a miscommunication or simply because his views are now less dovish than when he was seeking President Trump's nomination," Brown said. "But if Warsh feels beholden to Trump, an overtly dovish tone would reignite concerns about Fed independence and risk pushing up long-end bond yields."
Former Kansas City Fed president Esther George framed the core challenge directly: "You've got an inflation problem right now, and you have to communicate that. Their resolve around this inflation is their real challenge." George added she hopes the Fed will explicitly state it is willing to raise rates if inflation persists — language that would represent a significant escalation in the committee's public posture.
The Iran deal variable: disinflationary, but slowly
The US-Iran interim peace deal — which reopens the Strait of Hormuz this Friday — adds a genuinely new disinflationary variable to the Fed's calculus. Brent crude has already fallen below $80 toward $75, approaching pre-conflict levels. The IEA slashed its global oil demand outlook for the year and warned a post-war supply rebound could produce an oil glut in 2027.
However, multiple economists cautioned against assuming this changes the Fed's near-term posture. "Even if we get back to what it was before the war, we still had inflation running above 2%," said Patrick Harker, former Philadelphia Fed president. "Everybody forgets that we were still not at target. The issues that were creating inflation above 2% before the war are still there."
The Iran deal, if sustained, "could signal a peak in inflation — though energy prices could remain elevated for weeks or months before oil shipments and supply normalize," according to Yahoo Finance analysis. Additional tariff layering by the Trump administration to replace those struck down by the Supreme Court adds a competing inflationary pressure that the oil decline does not offset.
The dovish case: cuts by year-end remain plausible
Not all analysts are aligned on the hawkish scenario. Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust, projects rate cuts toward late 2026 into 2027. "I think by the time you get through the summer, we'll see that energy prices have not gone through to core inflation, and that inflation is not really a threat," Tilley said. "We think that the Fed will see the direction of travel in inflation and lack of core pressure and reduce rates again late this year."
Tilley outlined a scenario where most inflationary forces converge to the downside simultaneously: energy declining on the Iran deal, tariff impacts fading, stagnant home prices, and weak consumer spending — leaving only rising metals prices and AI's impact on computing equipment as residual inflationary forces.
Oxford Economics' chief economist similarly does not project a June hike, forecasting wording adjustments rather than a policy shift, with a baseline of a December rate cut.
What it means for Bitcoin and crypto
K33's Vetle Lunde captured the crypto-specific stakes precisely: "With BTC's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 near 0.6, any shift in Fed communication could have an outsized impact on BTC, which tends to be particularly sensitive to macro developments during bear markets."
Bitcoin enters Wednesday's 2 p.m. ET decision trading near $65,000 — up approximately 6% on the week — with implied volatility at two-week lows. A dot plot showing fewer hikes than currently priced, or Warsh striking a balanced tone that acknowledges the Iran deal's disinflationary tailwind, would be constructive for crypto. A dot plot with multiple members projecting two hikes, or Warsh explicitly validating the "insurance hike" language, would test Bitcoin's week-long recovery and the $63,000-$65,000 support zone that has formed since the bounce from $59,375.
The Fed meeting that everyone expected to be a formality has, against the backdrop of 4.2% CPI, a confirmed Iran peace deal, the largest IPO in history, and a new chairman who has publicly questioned the Fed's own communication practices, become one of the most consequential scheduled events of the entire correction cycle.

CZ disclosed via a post on X that over the past two years he made four donations of $500,000 each, at six-month intervals, to Prison Professors — a nonprofit organization providing free educational resources to incarcerated individuals in the United States — bringing his total contribution to $2 million. CZ said he had kept the giving private until now.

Binance’s estimated leverage ratio for XRP rose to about 0.1899, marking its highest level since the start of 2026. According to NS3.AI, CryptoQuant data showed the increase as XRP traded near $1.20.
The data also indicated that buyers defended support around $1.17.

According to the official announcement, Binance Futures will list a new set of USDⓈ-M and COIN-M Quarterly 1225 Delivery Contracts a few hours after the existing Quarterly 0626 contracts expire and settle at 08:00 UTC on June 26, 2026. Under the USDⓈ-M lineup, BTCUSDT Quarterly 1225 and ETHUSDT Quarterly 1225 will be available with USDT settlement, tick sizes of 0.1 and 0.01 respectively, and a maximum leverage of 50x. The COIN-M series will cover five assets — BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, and SOL — each settled in their respective underlying coin, with maximum leverage of 50x for BTC and ETH, and 20x for BNB, XRP, and SOL. All contracts will trade 24/7. Binance noted that in the ten minutes prior to delivery, users will only be permitted to close positions or submit Reduce Only orders and will not be able to open new positions.

Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero denied orchestrating an influence-peddling scheme tied to the 2021 $61.5 million bailout of airline Plus Ultra, testifying on June 17 at Madrid’s Audiencia Nacional. According to BeInCrypto, Investigating Judge José Luis Calama has ordered Spain’s economic crime police to trace and seize any Bitcoin (BTC) and Litecoin (LTC) linked to Zapatero as part of an asset hunt.Zapatero faces charges including influence peddling, money laundering, tax fraud and smuggling, and said flagged payments were legitimate consulting fees. The judge has described him as at the “apex” of an organized network and is also probing an offshore company allegedly set up in Dubai.

Bloomberg reported that SpaceX shares fell about 5% on Wednesday, snapping a three-day post-IPO rally that had reached nearly 50%, after an intraday swing that saw the stock initially surge as much as 6% before reversing. The decline pushed SpaceX back below Amazon in market capitalization, leaving the company valued at approximately $2.5 trillion — the sixth-largest in the world — though shares remain more than 42% above their $135 IPO price. The pullback came amid a broader US equity selloff following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady under new chairman Kevin Warsh, with traders fully pricing in a rate hike by October; the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 shed 1%. Bloomberg noted that only about 4.2% of SpaceX's total shares were available to trade at debut, with low float amplifying intraday volatility and potential downside pressure expected as insider lockups expire. Before Wednesday's decline, SpaceX had been the most-bought stock by retail investors since its IPO, matching the combined buying of Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and major index ETFs, according to Vanda Research, which noted a possible rotation from Tesla into SpaceX as the "cleaner AI and tech exposure." Over 1.4 million SpaceX options contracts changed hands Wednesday, making it the third-most traded security in the US options market. Index inclusion timelines diverged: SpaceX becomes eligible for the Nasdaq 100 after 15 trading days following rule changes by Nasdaq Inc., but faces at least a 12-month wait for S&P 500 inclusion under existing profitability and float requirements.

According to the announcement from Binance, Binance Earn will run a promotion for eligible users in the CIS that offers an additional 35% Bonus Tiered APR on USDT Simple Earn Flexible Products for up to seven days. The promotion period is 2026-06-18 00:00:00 (UTC) to 2026-08-18 23:59:59 (UTC). Eligibility is limited to CIS users who have never subscribed to Simple Earn Flexible Products across all tokens prior to 2026-06-18 00:00 (UTC), excluding Ukraine. Binance said it may take up to 48 hours before newly registered users can see and subscribe to the special offer. Subscriptions are available on a first-come, first-served basis, and the subscription format allows a maximum seven (7) days of subscription period. Bonus Tiered APR rewards are distributed to users’ Spot Accounts daily, while Real-Time APR accrues and is accumulated in users’ Earn Accounts every minute.
Heading: Offer Structure and Reward Timing
The special offer applies to USDT with a 7-day duration and combines Real-Time APR with a 35% Bonus Tiered APR for subscription amounts up to 200 USDT, with a minimum subscription limit of 0.1 USDT and no stated maximum subscription limit. Binance stated that Bonus Tiered APR begins accruing the next day from 00:00 (UTC) after subscription, and the first distribution occurs the day after accrual starts, meaning two days after subscription. Distributions are scheduled between 00:00 (UTC) and 08:00 (UTC) to Spot Accounts. Binance also said only users who complete identity verification during the promotion period can qualify for rewards, and only master accounts qualify for Bonus Tiered APR rewards; sub-accounts are not eligible.

Altcoin selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached levels not seen in five years — and the data suggests this is a structural condition rather than a temporary dip, according to CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech.
The cumulative buy/sell volume differential for altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum has recorded its deepest negative value since data tracking began in 2020 — meaning spot exchanges have seen more altcoin selling than buying for 15 consecutive months, with the trend not just persisting but accelerating.
"This is not a dip. It's 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges," IT Tech wrote. "Cumulative buy/sell volume diff (alts excluded BTC/ETH): deepest negative reading since data began in 2020."
The trajectory makes the reading more concerning than the level alone
The timing and direction of the deterioration add important context to the headline figure. The cumulative buy/sell differential was close to neutral in early 2025 — a period that coincided with the broader crypto bull market and altcoin season narratives that were circulating at the time. Since then, the indicator turned significantly negative and has continued declining without any meaningful recovery.
The implication is that altcoins have been experiencing sustained, structural net selling for over a year — through bull market conditions, through Bitcoin's October 2025 all-time high near $126,000, and through the subsequent 50% correction to the $59,000 cycle low. The selling pressure did not originate with the current bear phase. It predates it by over a year and has only deepened as macro conditions deteriorated.
What it means: exhaustion or opportunity?
Extreme readings of this kind carry two competing interpretations in market analysis — and both deserve consideration simultaneously.
The bearish reading is that 15 months of sustained net selling without recovery reflects genuine structural deterioration in altcoin demand: capital that has rotated permanently toward Bitcoin, AI equities, and other asset classes that have offered clearer narratives and better returns. The five-year extreme in negative pressure would, on this view, suggest the altcoin market has not yet cleared its excess and further downside or prolonged stagnation remains likely before any sustained recovery.
The contrarian reading is that five-year extremes in any sentiment or flow indicator tend to mark exhaustion points rather than continuation signals. When cumulative selling reaches levels that have never been seen before in a dataset, it suggests the sellers who were going to sell have largely sold — a condition that historically precedes reversals once a sufficient catalyst arrives. Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score at 1.0 for more than two consecutive weeks, the RHODL Ratio rolling over from its peak, and Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio hitting -20 are all consistent with a market approaching — if not yet at — maximum exhaustion across the broader crypto ecosystem.
The broader altcoin context this week
The CryptoQuant data provides important structural context for this week's altcoin price action. Several altcoins posted sharp recoveries Monday through Wednesday — Bittensor surged 31.9%, NEAR gained 22.2%, XRP broke out 8% above $1.20, and UNI extended its seven-day winning streak with a 20% surge on Standard Chartered's $100-by-2030 price target. These moves occurred against a backdrop where the underlying spot market buy/sell differential remains at five-year negative extremes — which helps explain why the recoveries have been uneven, volatile, and driven by specific catalysts (the Iran deal, analyst upgrades) rather than broad-based demand returning.
For altcoins to sustain a genuine recovery from these levels, the 15-month structural net selling trend needs to reverse — not just pause. That reversal would require the same conditions CryptoQuant identified for Bitcoin's confirmed recovery: ETF and institutional flow stabilization, large buyers returning in scale, and forced sellers finishing their exit. For altcoins specifically, those conditions are further from being met than for Bitcoin, which has at least seen positive ETF inflows return and Accumulation Trend Scores at their maximum reading.
Wednesday's FOMC decision under Kevin Warsh — and specifically whether the dot plot and press conference signal that rate hike pressure is genuinely easing — represents the next potential macro catalyst that could begin to shift the altcoin spot market's structural supply/demand imbalance. Lower rates or a more dovish tone reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding, higher-risk assets — the exact pressure that has contributed to 15 months of sustained altcoin net selling in the first place.

Oil fell after an interim US-Iran peace deal went into effect. In the market’s focus, according to Bloomberg, is whether transits through the Strait of Hormuz will increase as Persian Gulf producers restart shut-in fields.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.55% on June 17 to close at 100.091 by the end of trading in the foreign exchange market. According to ChainCatcher, the euro fell to $1.1539 from $1.161 in the previous session, while the British pound declined to $1.3338 from $1.3429.
The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen to 160.5 from 160.44, and rose versus the Swiss franc to 0.7971 from 0.7931. It also gained against the Canadian dollar to 1.4071 from 1.3993 and advanced versus the Swedish krona to 9.461 from 9.3618.

Bitcoin’s realized losses fell by 46% as bid-side liquidity increased, signaling a potential easing of sell pressure and raising questions about whether buyers can push BTC back above $70,000. According to Cointelegraph, the decline in realized losses coincided with growing bid-side liquidity, a market condition typically associated with stronger demand at lower price levels and reduced urgency among sellers.
The report linked the drop in realized losses to improving liquidity on the buy side, suggesting that selling pressure may be moderating as more buyers are willing to absorb supply. Cointelegraph framed the development as a key factor that could support a recovery attempt, with attention focused on whether bulls can reclaim the $70,000 level. The update did not provide a timeline for a potential move, but emphasized that the combination of lower realized losses and stronger bid-side liquidity may reflect shifting market dynamics that traders are watching closely.

Bitcoin is trading near $65,300 on Wednesday, down about 1.7% in European hours in what reads as pre-FOMC profit-taking rather than a trend reversal — still up approximately 6% on the week following the US-Iran peace deal confirmation. The pullback arrives as a remarkable convergence of on-chain bottom signals continue to accumulate, while every market participant waits on one thing: Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve decision at 2 p.m. ET.
The Sharpe ratio signal: every cycle bottom, same reading
Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio — which measures return against volatility — dropped to -20 on June 11, according to CryptoQuant data. That precise level has appeared at every major bear market bottom of the past decade: the 2015 cycle low, the 2018-19 bottom, and the 2022-23 trough.
The important nuance is what the signal actually means. In all three prior cases, -20 marked the beginning of a prolonged basing period rather than an immediate launch. The metric stayed below the threshold for approximately five months in 2015 and roughly three months each in 2018-19 and 2022-23 before Bitcoin began a durable recovery. The signal indicates the floor is forming — not that the rebound has arrived. This aligns precisely with CryptoQuant's earlier "close to value, not confirmed recovery" framework, and with Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick identifying $83,000 as the level that needs to be reclaimed before the lower-highs downtrend is genuinely invalidated.
The RHODL Ratio: a pattern from 2015 and 2022 bottoms
A second historically significant on-chain signal has emerged simultaneously. Bitcoin's RHODL Ratio — which compares wealth held by long-term holders against fresh short-term capital — is beginning to roll over from its peak. This precise pattern emerged at both the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms, both of which marked the end of brutal bear markets before major recoveries followed.
Long-term holders reasserting dominance over short-term capital in the RHODL framework suggests capital rotation is shifting — the cohort most likely to sell has already sold, and the cohort most likely to hold through volatility is absorbing supply. If history rhymes, the structural weight of forced selling may be behind Bitcoin, even if the price recovery takes additional months to fully develop.
Accumulator wallets, exchange reserves, and the Binance order book
Three additional on-chain data points reinforce the accumulation narrative. Accumulator wallets — addresses with a demonstrated history of holding rather than selling — took in approximately 125,000 BTC in the first half of June alone. Exchange reserves have fallen roughly 80,000 BTC since February to approximately 2.71 million — coins leaving exchanges is structurally bullish as it reduces immediately available sell-side supply. Whales pulled more than 11,000 BTC off exchanges in the past day specifically.
On the market microstructure side, Bitcoin's order book imbalance on Binance — measuring buy-side liquidity relative to sell-side — has surged to its highest level since at least February 2024, according to Glassnode data. Passive buy orders are stacking up more aggressively relative to sell orders on the world's largest exchange by trading volume, a pattern that typically signals renewed investor demand willing to absorb available supply rather than wait for lower prices.
ETF flows: two positive days, but sixth straight week of net outflows
Bitcoin spot ETFs have shown early signs of stabilization following their record outflow streak. Over the past three trading sessions, US ETFs have recorded net inflows on two occasions — $10 million on Tuesday and $86 million on Friday. BlackRock's IBIT has continued to attract demand, adding in excess of $150 million over four consecutive days.
However, the sector has still recorded $54 million in net outflows so far this week, putting it on course for a sixth consecutive week of withdrawals. The trajectory has improved but the trend has not yet reversed — consistent with CryptoQuant's earlier demand-side caution that identified sustained ETF inflow stabilization as one of the three necessary conditions for a confirmed recovery rather than simply a floor formation.
What the macro backdrop looks like heading into 2 p.m. ET
Oil's continued decline provides the most important context for the Fed meeting. Brent crude has retreated to approximately $75 per barrel — returning to pre-conflict levels following the confirmed US-Iran peace deal and the Strait of Hormuz reopening scheduled for June 19. This is genuinely disinflationary: the energy-driven component that pushed May CPI to 4.2% — its highest since April 2023 — is mechanically reversing in commodity markets in real time.
Markets are pricing a rate hold with near-certainty. The dot plot and Warsh's post-meeting press conference tone are the variables that carry market-moving potential. A dovish lean — acknowledging the improved inflation outlook from lower oil and the core CPI beat — could extend crypto's recovery. A hawkish hold that maintains explicit higher-for-longer language despite the changed backdrop could deepen the pre-FOMC pullback.
US stock futures and bonds rose during European hours — Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8%, S&P 500 futures up 0.3% — as traditional markets appeared to interpret the session's macro backdrop more constructively than crypto did in early trading.
Scaramucci: apathy is bullish, late 2026 rally incoming
Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of Skybridge Capital, offered a longer-term frame in commentary on Wednesday. Remaining firmly bullish with a significant personal Bitcoin position, Scaramucci described the current market apathy — rather than as a warning sign — as a potential opportunity. Drawing on nearly four decades of investing experience, he argued that depressed RSI levels, weak sentiment, and thin market liquidity mean even modest demand could drive Bitcoin sharply higher.
He expects Bitcoin to begin rallying in late 2026 and continue into early 2027 — a timeline that aligns with Brian Armstrong's four-year halving cycle framework projecting a potential bottom around September to October 2026, and with the Sharpe ratio's historical signal that base formations typically last three to five months from the -20 reading recorded on June 11.
What today's FOMC means for the on-chain bottom signals
An important clarification is worth stating directly: the driver of Bitcoin's recovery from its $59,130 low to approximately $65,800 was the US-Iran deal, not the on-chain metrics. The Sharpe ratio, RHODL Ratio, accumulator wallets, and order book data measure accumulation and exhaustion — they identify structural conditions, not catalysts. The actual price moves have been macro-driven, with on-chain conditions providing the foundation that allowed macro catalysts to produce recoveries rather than failed bounces.
Today's FOMC decision is the next macro test. If Warsh's first meeting signals that the improved oil backdrop has shifted the Fed's calculus — even modestly — toward acknowledging the disinflationary tailwind rather than maintaining purely hawkish forward guidance, the convergence of on-chain bottom signals and an improving macro environment creates the conditions that Standard Chartered and others have identified as necessary for Bitcoin to begin working toward the $83,000 threshold that would confirm the lower-highs downtrend is genuinely over.

Bitcoin retreated below $65,000 on Wednesday after trading near $67,000 just a day earlier, as crypto markets pulled back in cautious positioning ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's interest-rate decision — the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell 1.2% since midnight UTC, with all but four tokens declining.
Against that broadly defensive backdrop, Uniswap's UNI token stood out with a 20% surge over 24 hours — extending a seven-day winning streak that marks the token's longest consecutive run since August 2023.
The FOMC setup: no rate change expected, but Warsh's tone is everything
Markets are pricing in no change to the federal funds rate at today's meeting, with rate hike expectations already pushed out to 2027 following oil's 5% drop and the confirmed US-Iran peace deal. The focus is entirely on what Warsh signals in his post-meeting press conference.
"The main focus for the week is the FOMC meeting under new leadership, with market expectations of interest rate hikes already priced in through 2027," Laser Digital said in its weekly note.
Warsh has previously criticized the Fed's frequent press conferences and detailed forecasting — making today's session particularly watched. Markets will be looking for signals on his inflation views, his assessment of the improved oil-driven backdrop, and whether the dot plot accompanying this meeting shows any shift in the median rate projection for 2026 and 2027.
Why UNI is the standout gainer: Standard Chartered's $100 target by 2030
The catalyst behind UNI's rally is a Standard Chartered note from Geoffrey Kendrick — the same analyst who declared "Winter is over, welcome back to crypto Spring" earlier this week after his three Bitcoin bottom-confirmation signals were all met. Kendrick initiated coverage of UNI on June 15 with a $100 price target for 2030, approximately 40 times the current price, and a $6.50 year-end target.
The thesis rests on two structural arguments. First, the tokenized real-world asset market — currently up 589% year-to-date according to Binance Research, with tokenized stocks already at $422% growth — is expected to flood into DeFi protocols as regulatory frameworks mature. Kendrick argues Uniswap will capture an outsized share of that flow as core decentralized market infrastructure. Second, Uniswap's fee switch, active since late 2025, now routes a share of trading fees into buying back and burning UNI tokens — removing approximately 106 million tokens, more than 10% of total supply, and converting what was previously a pure governance token into a deflationary asset with direct fee accrual.
The fundamentals support the structure. Tokenized stocks launched on Uniswap's RWA pools earlier this month have already seen more than $9.1 billion in swap volume — a figure that validates the RWA-flow-capture thesis with real transaction data rather than projection alone.
UNI has now risen for seven consecutive days, erasing all of its June losses, and currently trades near $2.75.
Derivatives: the calmest session since before June's crash
The derivatives picture heading into the FOMC is notably tranquil — the calmest the market has been since before the crash that sent Bitcoin to $59,375. Crypto futures volume fell 20% in 24 hours to $165 billion. Open interest dropped 2.3% to $110 billion. Liquidations fell to approximately $310 million, down 44% from prior sessions.
Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) hovered near an annualized 39% — a level not seen since June 2, just before it spiked to nearly 59% in the days that followed. Ether's volatility index showed similar stability. The market is not bracing for a shock — it is waiting for clarity.
Altcoin positioning: ADA nears record open interest, but the signal leans bearish
Cardano's ADA stands out in derivatives data. Open interest has climbed to 2.26 billion tokens, approaching the record 2.32 billion set on June 6 and recovering from the June 13 low of 2 billion. However, the signal is not straightforwardly bullish — ADA's price has slipped from over 18 cents to under 17 cents over two days alongside a negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta, a combination that suggests aggressive selling at market orders rather than passive accumulation. The open interest recovery appears driven by renewed leveraged positioning into weakness rather than bullish conviction.
NEAR dropped over 9%, with declining open interest suggesting traders are unwinding leverage during the selloff rather than establishing fresh short positions. ZEC and SUI led open interest gains among other altcoins, while BCH joined NEAR among the biggest open interest losers.
Most major tokens — with the exception of TRX and CC — showed negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta, pointing to broad bearish dominance in trade flows ahead of the Fed decision.
Options: BTC puts dominate, but ETH calls lead
In the options market, BTC puts continue to dominate 24-hour volume rankings — a defensive positioning consistent with the cautious pre-FOMC mood. However, the $80,000 BTC call expiring March 26 next year also saw notable activity, suggesting some participants are positioning for a multi-month recovery toward Standard Chartered's $83,000 level that Geoffrey Kendrick identified as the threshold needed to invalidate Bitcoin's lower-highs downtrend.
In Ether's options market, calls are leading volume rankings — a more constructive positioning than Bitcoin's put-heavy flow, consistent with the relative outperformance Ethereum has shown since recovering from its $1,500 weekend low and the structural advantage that Tom Lee's Bitmine has been betting on through its continued ETH accumulation.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin's retreat to $64,708 from $67,000 does not reverse the broader recovery — it reflects standard pre-FOMC positioning in a market that has historically front-run Fed meetings with profit-taking before reacting to the actual decision. With BVIV at a three-week low of 39%, the market is not pricing a shock. What comes next — both for Bitcoin's technical structure and for UNI's remarkable run — will be shaped by what Warsh says at 2 p.m. ET and whether the new Fed chair's tone reinforces or challenges the market's current conviction that rate hikes are off the table through 2026.

Bitcoin is trading near $64,761 ahead of the most anticipated Federal Reserve meeting in months — the first chaired by Kevin Warsh. No change to the 3.50%-3.75% rate is expected, which means the rate decision itself is not the event. The policy statement, the updated dot plot, and Warsh's press conference are.
Implied volatility indexes tied to Bitcoin and Ether are hovering at two-week lows, having reversed the early-month spike that accompanied Bitcoin's crash to $59,130. The market is calm — but coiled. Here is what traders are watching for.
Signal One: The Dot Plot
The dot plot — a graphical representation of where individual Fed members see interest rates heading — is the most quantifiable of today's three variables. Fed funds futures currently price in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point increase by December 2026. That is the reference point.
If the dot plot shows fewer than 80% of FOMC members projecting a hike by December — meaning the committee's collective view is less hawkish than what markets have already priced — Bitcoin could react positively. The logic is straightforward: any reduction in the hawkishness priced into forward rates eases the higher-for-longer pressure that has weighed on non-yielding risk assets throughout the May-June correction.
Conversely, if the median dot shows a December hike as the committee's base case — validating or exceeding current market pricing — the effect on crypto would be neutral to negative, removing one potential catalyst for extending the week's recovery.
Signal Two: Warsh on Rates, Inflation, and the Oil Price Collapse
The press conference gives Warsh the opportunity to shape the market's interpretation of the dot plot with his own words. The key question: will he acknowledge the dramatically improved inflationary backdrop from oil's collapse to $75 per barrel — pre-conflict levels — and use it to lay the groundwork for the rate cuts the Trump administration has been pushing for?
Brent crude returning to $75 is not a trivial development. The IEA on Wednesday slashed its global oil demand outlook for the year, adding that a post-war supply rebound could create an oil glut in 2027 — a scenario that would represent a complete reversal of the inflationary supply shock that has driven CPI from 3.3% to 4.2% since February. If Warsh cites falling oil prices and AI-driven disinflation as evidence that inflation is returning toward target without Fed intervention, he would be delivering the dovish signal that the 33% of fund managers in Bank of America's survey expected — and Bitcoin would likely react positively.
If he falls in line with current market pricing — acknowledging the improved backdrop but maintaining a balanced, higher-for-longer stance — the reaction would be more muted, consistent with the 55% of fund managers who expected a straightforward hawkish hold.
Signal Three: Forward Guidance and the Warsh Communications Shift
The wildcard is Warsh's approach to Fed communication itself. Warsh has previously and explicitly criticized the Fed's habit of overcommunicating with markets — the regular press conferences, the detailed dot plots, the Summary of Economic Projections — as creating excessive market dependency on central bank guidance.
If Warsh signals a shift toward significantly reduced forward guidance — fewer commitments, less explicit dot-plot-driven market management, more data-dependence and less pre-signaling — it could move markets in a way that is difficult to model in advance. Less forward guidance reduces the market's ability to price the rate path with precision, which typically introduces volatility but can also reduce the mechanical hawkishness that comes from having the Fed explicitly talk about rate hikes for months before they actually occur.
Whether a reduced-guidance signal would be net bullish or bearish for Bitcoin depends on how it is framed — but it represents a genuine tail risk for market participants positioned around the current rate path pricing.
The macro context: yields pulling back, oil at pre-war levels
The 10-year US Treasury yield has pulled back to 4.43% from recent highs above 4.55% — a pause in the sharp rise that began when the Iran war started in late February. The yield decline, combined with Brent at $75 and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8% this morning, gives Warsh a genuinely improved macro backdrop to work with compared to any point during the May-June correction.
What's trending beyond the Fed
Kalshi's perpetual futures business crossed $5.5 billion in trading volume in its first two weeks — prompting Bloomberg to report the platform is now looking to expand perps beyond digital assets, adding momentum to the broader US regulated derivatives adoption story that Kraken's John Palmer described as being at "the national anthem still." Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade — described by developers as one of the network's biggest changes since the Merge — has entered its final development stage with devnets running, adding a medium-term positive catalyst for ETH specifically as Bitmine continues accumulating. And the IEA's oil glut warning for 2027 adds a longer-term disinflationary signal to what is already an improving near-term oil picture.
The Bottom Line
The market has three specific things to watch for. A dovish dot plot showing fewer hike projections than currently priced. Warsh citing oil and AI disinflation as grounds for a more accommodative stance. Or a forward guidance shift that reduces the Fed's explicit commitment to the rate path markets have been trading around.
Any one of these — and especially any combination — could extend Bitcoin's recovery from its $59,130 cycle low toward the $68,900 resistance level that represents the next technical target after clearing $66,000. The opposite outcomes would validate the pre-FOMC pullback and keep the $63,000-$65,000 range intact heading into Friday's Geneva signing.

Domestic gold jewelry prices in China were little changed on June 18, with multiple brands holding near 1,307-1,312 yuan per gram. According to Jin10, the comparison showed overall moves were limited, though some brands raised prices. Chow Sang Sang’s pure gold jewelry price rose 7 yuan per gram.

Spot gold fell more than $40 in a short period after the Federal Reserve released its interest-rate decision. According to Jin10, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose 35 points over the same stretch.

Gold rose after the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal. In a separate development, according to Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve signaled a rate hike later in the year.

Bitcoin has rebounded approximately 6% over the past week to hover around $65,000 — recovering from two consecutive weeks of double-digit declines — and K33 Research is pointing to a new all-time high in long-term holder supply as one of the clearest signals yet that the bear market may be approaching its end.
79% of circulating supply in long-term holder hands: a new record
In K33's latest market report, Head of Research Vetle Lunde highlighted that 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now held by long-term holders — a new all-time high. This metric has historically increased throughout every Bitcoin bear market as the market approaches its trough, reflecting the gradual transfer of supply from short-term speculators and reactive sellers to patient, conviction-driven holders who are not motivated to sell regardless of price.
The all-time high reading means that a greater proportion of Bitcoin's supply is currently in the hands of holders who have demonstrated through their behaviour — by not selling through the decline from $126,000 to $59,375 — that they are structurally long rather than tactically positioned. Each new all-time high in this metric has historically marked a further step toward the supply exhaustion that precedes sustainable recoveries.
Old coin reactivation: second-lowest on record, only above 2012
The companion metric reinforces the picture. In 2026, only 218,421 BTC aged two years or more had been reactivated by June 6 — the second-lowest reactivation of old supply ever recorded, exceeded only by 2012, when just 70,600 BTC had been reactivated by the same date.
The contrast with 2024 is striking. By June 6, 2024, approximately 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated — more than five times the 2026 figure. "The only year to experience lower reactivation of old supply by June 6 was 2012," Lunde said. "In contrast, 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated by June 6, 2024, highlighting the stark difference in onchain selling pressure in 2026 compared to the past two years."
A defining feature of the 2024-25 bull cycle was the large volume of older coins being reactivated and likely sold as prices reached record highs. The near-complete absence of that dynamic in 2026 — even as prices fell 53% from the October peak — suggests that long-term holders who survived the decline to $59,375 are not selling at these levels. When old coins don't move, sell-side supply pressure structurally diminishes.
Trading volume at yearly lows: a late-stage bear market pattern
Lunde also highlighted that trading activity has fallen back toward yearly lows — a pattern consistently observed during late-stage Bitcoin bear markets. Low volume in a declining or stabilizing market reflects a market where existing holders are reluctant to sell and new buyers have not yet arrived in force. The combination of near-record low volume and near-record high long-term holder supply creates the conditions that historically precede recoveries: supply is locked away, and the sellers who needed to sell have largely finished.
ETF outflows — identified by both 10x Research and Standard Chartered as the key driver of the recent correction — have also eased materially. Over the past three sessions, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows on two occasions ($86 million on Friday, $10 million on Tuesday), though BlackRock's IBIT has been the primary source of sustained demand with more than $150 million in inflows over four consecutive days.
The 50% underwater warning: final leg lower still possible
Not all of K33's recent analysis has been straightforwardly bullish. In last week's report, Lunde noted that 50% of Bitcoin's circulating supply was underwater — a level historically only reached within weeks of major bear market bottoms, but one that has typically been followed by one final leg lower before the genuine trough forms.
This week's update acknowledges that market conditions have since stabilized from that reading — but the caveat remains relevant. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick similarly identified $83,000 as the level needed to invalidate the lower-highs downtrend, and Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio dropping to -20 (matching every prior cycle bottom) was followed by three to five months of basing in each historical case before a durable recovery began.
The dissenting view: not everyone sees confirmation yet
Analysts at Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have each recently warned that ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand still fall short of confirming a lasting market reversal. Some calls for Bitcoin dropping as low as $30,000 remain on the table, representing the bear case that the 50% underwater reading precedes a final capitulation rather than marking the trough itself.
Bitwise's CIO has separately argued that the bottom debate itself is "the wrong question" — pointing to long-term structural adoption drivers as the more relevant framework for investors with multi-year horizons regardless of where the exact cycle low lands.
FOMC as the next macro test
Lunde's report concludes with the same focus that has dominated this week's analysis: Wednesday's FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh is the next critical test. "With BTC's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 near 0.6, any shift in Fed communication could have an outsized impact on BTC, which tends to be particularly sensitive to macro developments during bear markets," Lunde said.
SpaceX's debut — rising 28% over its first two trading days to a $2.5 trillion valuation — may have impacted crypto liquidity in the immediate term, consistent with the capital rotation thesis that Standard Chartered identified as a primary driver of the $5.72 billion in ETF outflows since mid-May. With the IPO settled, that specific headwind has resolved.
The convergence of signals — K33's record long-term holder supply, Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score at 1.0 for more than two weeks, Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio at historical cycle-bottom levels, CryptoQuant's altcoin selling pressure at a five-year extreme suggesting broader exhaustion, and ETF flows beginning to stabilize — paints a consistent picture of a market in the late stages of a bear cycle. Whether the FOMC decision gives that structure the macro catalyst it needs to transition from floor formation to genuine recovery is the question that 2 p.m. ET today will begin to answer, according to The Block.

Oil edged lower as traders assessed an interim US-Iran peace deal. State television in Iran and a US official said, according to Bloomberg, that the pact was signed digitally by the nations’ presidents.

Snap (SNAP) shares fell 9.72% to $5.16 on Tuesday after CEO Evan Spiegel unveiled the company’s first commercial augmented reality glasses, Specs, priced at $2,195. The launch was announced at Augmented World Expo (AWE) 2026 in California, according to BeInCrypto, with preorders opening the same day on a $200 refundable deposit and initial shipments slated for the US, UK, and France this fall.
Spiegel pitched Specs as a standalone computing platform with built-in apps and an AI assistant, but social media criticism of the bulky design added to investor caution. Specs are priced more than three times Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses, which retail below $700.

Shanghai gold and silver futures fell sharply at the open after the Federal Reserve’s dot plot signaled a more hawkish policy stance. According to ChainCatcher, the move was reported by Jin10.
Goldman Sachs said the hawkish shift is not solely driven by crude oil, and noted that when precious metals prices will stabilize remains a key focus for the market.

Shanghai gold and silver futures closed lower, while SC crude oil futures ended higher. According to Jin10, as of the 2:30 close, the main Shanghai gold contract fell 0.84% to 935 yuan per gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract declined 1.36% to 16,589 yuan per kilogram.
The main SC crude oil contract rose 0.80% to 517 yuan per barrel.

Gold held a loss after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a hike later in the year. According to Bloomberg, the Fed left rates unchanged while indicating it still expects to raise borrowing costs later this year.

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may recover to only about 70% of their pre-war level, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The bank said, according to Bloomberg, that regional producers are leaning on alternative routes.

The International Energy Agency forecast a major oil supply overhang in 2027, with global output projected to rise about 8 mb/d to 110.3 mb/d while demand increases only 2 mb/d to 105.3 mb/d, implying roughly 5 mb/d of oversupply. According to BeInCrypto, the IEA expects 2026 production to fall 3.9 mb/d to 102.4 mb/d after a US-Iran conflict-driven shock, then recover if a sustained US-Iran agreement allows Iranian exports to fully resume once the US blockade is lifted.
The report said cheaper oil could ease inflation and potentially give the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates, a backdrop that has historically supported risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC).

World Chain’s canonical bridge total value locked (TVL) rose 32.87% over the past seven days to about $602 million, according to DefiLlama.
According to NS3.AI, CoinGecko data showed Worldcoin’s WLD token increased by more than 50% over the same period to about $0.67.

Wells Fargo raised its year-end gold price target to $5,300 to $5,500 and projected gold could reach $5,800 to $6,000 by the end of 2027. According to Jin10, the bank said in its mid-year outlook that it remains firmly bullish on gold and believes the bull market is not over.
Wells Fargo also described gold as one of its “highest-conviction” investment themes.

Citron Research founder Andrew Left is scheduled to attend a sentencing hearing on August 31, 2026, with a theoretical maximum sentence of up to 265 years.
According to Odaily, the final sentence will be determined by the court based on the specific circumstances.
Prosecutors allege that Left frequently used short-dated options expiring within 0 to 5 trading days to bet on rapid stock price moves shortly after reports or posts were released. They also allege he placed limit orders in advance and exited at prices that were often far from the target prices Citron publicly promoted.
The stocks cited in the case include Nvidia, Tesla, Facebook, General Electric, Luckin Coffee, and others.

China’s next retail fuel price adjustment window is expected to result in a cut, as the negative range of the crude oil price change rate has widened.
According to Jin10, a monitoring model from Sublime China Information showed that as of the close on June 17, the crude oil change rate referenced on the 10th working day was -11.62%.
Based on the model, the retail price caps for gasoline and diesel are expected to be lowered by 515 yuan per metric ton and 495 yuan per metric ton, respectively. On a per-liter basis, the prices of 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-grade diesel are expected to fall by 0.40 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.42 yuan, respectively.
The adjustment window is scheduled for 24:00 on June 18, 2026.
If the retail price cap cut is confirmed, a private car filling a 50-liter tank once would spend about 20 yuan less.
Sublime China Information also estimated that for a private fuel vehicle traveling 2,000 kilometers per month with average fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, fuel costs would decrease by about 32 yuan per vehicle before the next adjustment window opens at 24:00 on July 3, 2026.

Chinese investors have more than doubled their stake in Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. to 13% this year after a surge in the shares. In the latest stock exchange data, according to Bloomberg, the buying has helped fuel gains in the company, which has emerged as a new AI-linked market favorite.

China A-shares traded mixed in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite closing at 4,092, down 0.37%. The Shenzhen Component ended at 15,970, up 0.57%, according to Ming Pao, while the ChiNext Index rose 1.39% to 4,224 after climbing more than 2% earlier to set another record high.
Turnover for the half-day session totaled RMB 2.15 trillion.

Lenovo Group Ltd. raised $2 billion from the sale of seven-year convertible bonds. According to Bloomberg, the fundraising comes two years after the company raised a similar amount from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

Angry shareholders confronted Nidec Corp.’s board at the motor manufacturer’s annual meeting after a tumultuous year marked by accounting scandals, manufacturing defects and the ouster of its founder. According to Bloomberg, the meeting highlighted investor frustration with the company’s governance and recent setbacks.

The Social Security trust fund is projected to run out in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than last year’s estimate. According to NS3.AI, if lawmakers do not act, about 70 million Americans would face a benefit cut of about 22%.
The updated projection indicates the program’s reserves would be depleted sooner than previously expected, increasing the urgency for legislative action to avoid automatic reductions in payments.