The altseason narrative is gaining strength again. With Bitcoin's dominance falling below 60% and the market capitalization of altcoins remaining above $1.5 trillion, the combination of expectations for Fed rate cuts and capital rotation in crypto is opening the door to a new cycle of opportunities.

The Fed moves the pieces

Market consensus (according to CME FedWatch Tool) points to a 25 basis point cut in September, with a probability greater than 95%. This represents a shift in monetary policy that could:

Temporarily reduce inflationary pressures.

Boost global liquidity.

Favor the entry of capital into risk assets, including altcoins.

👉 Dates to watch:

September 5 – NFP (US employment).

September 10 – PPI (producer inflation).

September 16–17 – FOMC (rate decision).

BTC gives way, alts absorb it

BTC dominance fell from 65% in June to the current 58%, confirming that capital is moving towards other assets.

The TOTAL2 index (altcoin cap) maintains a bullish formation. As long as it doesn't drop below $1.5T, the scenario points to a continuation of the trend.

A breakout to the upside could open the door to all-time highs in alt capitalization.

Key reading points for traders

1. TOTAL2:

🔼 Bull case: Confirmation above $1.69T = validation of altseason.

🔽 Bear case: Close below $1.5T = end of pattern alert.

2. BTC Dominance:

Going down → fuel for alts.

Bouncing → possible pause of altseason.

3. Macro catalysts:

Weak employment/inflation data = higher probability of cut → oxygen for alts.

Strong data = less aggressive Fed → temporary brake.

Narratives leading the rotation

Ethereum and L2s → safe haven assets within altcoins.

Emerging L1s → capture flows when ETH sets the pace.

Productive DeFi and RWA → sensitive to cheaper liquidity.

AI & DePIN → momentum alts that leverage hype and volume.

Suggested strategy (not financial advice)

Pre-Fed (September 5–16): maintain defensive positions and partial liquidity in stables.

Post-Fed (if cut confirmed): look for breakout confirmations in TOTAL2 and ALT/BTC pairs to enter strength.

Risk management: set alerts on Binance for BTC.D and TOTAL2 levels, and use OCO orders to protect capital in volatility.

Conclusion

The market is at an inflection point: macro dovish + BTC losing dominance are classic ingredients for an altseason. However, validation will depend on TOTAL2 not losing $1.5T and the Fed confirming the monetary turn.

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