Ualifi Araújo
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Bullish
Let's take a look at today's Economic data.
- ADP – Change in Private Employment (Aug)
Current: 54K
Projection: 73K
Previous: 106K
Below expectations, showing a slowdown in the labor market. If Powell wanted this, he has it here.
- Initial Unemployment Claims
Current: 237K
Projection: 230K
Previous: 229K
Above projection, which is good and helps us!
- Services PMI (Aug)
Current: 54.5
Projection: 55.4
Previous: 55.7
Below expectations, showing a slowdown in the services sector (this is important!).
- PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug)
Current: 52.0
Projection: 50.9
Previous: 50.1
HERE it gets interesting, notice that it came in above expectations showing that the sector is still resilient, which is bad for interest rate cuts. Notice that if you check 99.99% of the analyses posted about this data, they all only come from this data, as if all the rest had no influence (and they were good).
Final Thought;
Overall, the data came in much more favorable
towards interest rate cuts, because it shows a slowdown in employment and services, which is what Powell wants to reduce.
If you expect all data to always come in equally good, then I suggest you lower your expectations in that regard.
The #BTC continues trying to recover the $112K, yesterday it failed in a clean recovery, but at these current prices is where the magic needs to happen. Therefore, it still looks very good.
As I said at the beginning of the Week:
SEPTEMBER will establish the bottom and OCTOBER is when we should have the start of an Altseason, the levels are simple and easy to observe before that;
Bitcoin above $112K and to maintain the advantage $115K.
Ethereum above $4,800, when we have this setup, then that's when the party begins. 🚀
If you are anxious about a -2% pullback, then your leverage must be wrong. Fix that!
- ADP – Change in Private Employment (Aug)
Current: 54K
Projection: 73K
Previous: 106K
Below expectations, showing a slowdown in the labor market. If Powell wanted this, he has it here.
- Initial Unemployment Claims
Current: 237K
Projection: 230K
Previous: 229K
Above projection, which is good and helps us!
- Services PMI (Aug)
Current: 54.5
Projection: 55.4
Previous: 55.7
Below expectations, showing a slowdown in the services sector (this is important!).
- PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug)
Current: 52.0
Projection: 50.9
Previous: 50.1
HERE it gets interesting, notice that it came in above expectations showing that the sector is still resilient, which is bad for interest rate cuts. Notice that if you check 99.99% of the analyses posted about this data, they all only come from this data, as if all the rest had no influence (and they were good).
Final Thought;
Overall, the data came in much more favorable
towards interest rate cuts, because it shows a slowdown in employment and services, which is what Powell wants to reduce.
If you expect all data to always come in equally good, then I suggest you lower your expectations in that regard.
The #BTC continues trying to recover the $112K, yesterday it failed in a clean recovery, but at these current prices is where the magic needs to happen. Therefore, it still looks very good.
As I said at the beginning of the Week:
SEPTEMBER will establish the bottom and OCTOBER is when we should have the start of an Altseason, the levels are simple and easy to observe before that;
Bitcoin above $112K and to maintain the advantage $115K.
Ethereum above $4,800, when we have this setup, then that's when the party begins. 🚀
If you are anxious about a -2% pullback, then your leverage must be wrong. Fix that!
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
