Dogecoin ETF rumors ignite the market: Is DOGE's climb to $5 a celebration or a bubble? In-depth analysis of bullish and bearish logic.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has once again fallen into a frenzy due to rumors of a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF. Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas revealed on social platform X that asset management company REX Shares may submit a DOGE ETF application next week under the U.S. (1940 Investment Company Act). As soon as the news broke, DOGE instantly became the market focus, with price predictions ranging from $0.30 to $5 sparking heated discussions. However, behind the optimistic sentiment, on-chain whales are concentrating on selling, market trading volume is sluggish, and conflicting technical signals cast a shadow over DOGE's short-term trend.
1. ETF Rumors: Is DOGE's 'Strong Heart' or 'Mirage'?
To understand the impact of this rumor, one must first clarify the market logic of cryptocurrency ETFs. Previously, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF led to a short-term rise of over 30%, primarily because ETFs, as compliant investment tools, can provide a convenient channel for traditional institutions and ordinary investors to allocate crypto assets, directly expanding market demand.
As a cryptocurrency with a stable market cap in the top ten, DOGE, despite being viewed as a high-risk asset due to its 'meme attribute', has two major supports that give it ETF target potential: one is the large community base built by over 5 million holding addresses worldwide, and the other is the continuous attention from public figures like Elon Musk. Balchunas even mentioned that DOGE ETF 'is expected to be the first meme coin ETF to materialize.'
However, reality is not all smooth sailing. The current market is also discussing the possibility of ETFs for assets like Trump NFTs and XRP, while the U.S. SEC has always been strict in reviewing cryptocurrency ETFs—especially for meme coins like DOGE, which have significant price volatility and controversial underlying value, it is highly likely that issuers will be required to improve risk hedging mechanisms and valuation models, leaving the final approval results full of uncertainty.
Stimulated by rumors, the crypto community on platform X has sparked a wave of price predictions. Some investors believe that if DOGE can break through the key resistance range of $0.21-$0.22, it is likely to hit $0.30 in the short term, reasoning that 'ETF expectations will bring in funds ahead of time', similar to the market warming up before the approval of the Bitcoin ETF. More aggressive views set targets at $1 or even $5, arguing that 'when DOGE's market cap reaches $1, it will be about $130 billion, only one-fifth of the current Bitcoin market cap, leaving room for valuation recovery.' However, such predictions clearly ignore the core issue that DOGE lacks practical application scenarios and its price heavily relies on market sentiment, with most institutional analysts openly stating this is 'irrational speculation.'
2. Hidden Concerns Emerge: Dual Blow of Whale Sell-offs and Insufficient Volume
Contrary to market optimism, on-chain data reveals that risks are intensifying. According to crypto data analysis platforms such as Nansen and Glassnode, in the past 48 hours, 'medium-sized whales' holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE (mostly controlled by institutions or high-net-worth investors) have engaged in concentrated sell-offs, totaling 200 million DOGE, with a market value of approximately $43.2 million calculated at current prices.
It is worth noting that these sell-offs are not dispersed trades but concentrated on three core addresses, with the largest transaction reaching 80 million DOGE (about $17.28 million), directly leading to a 0.5% pullback in DOGE within a short time. A crypto market analyst pointed out: 'Such investors usually have more accurate information channels; this concentrated sell-off is either a precaution against the risk of ETF approval or a profit-taking in the current price range. If subsequent sell-offs continue, it may trigger small and medium investors to follow suit and break DOGE's current consolidation pattern.'
More concerning than whale sell-offs is the sluggish trading volume. As of the time of writing, DOGE's 24-hour trading volume has plummeted by 15% compared to the previous day, standing at only $1.2 billion, at a near one-month low. In the crypto market, trading volume is the 'foundation' of price movements—when prices rise accompanied by increased trading volume, it indicates sufficient upward momentum; if prices recover but trading volume shrinks, it is a typical 'volume-less rebound' that is difficult to sustain. The current 0.82% increase in DOGE (current price $0.216) is a manifestation of this 'volume-less rebound,' reflecting the significant divergence in market opinion on the current price and low participation willingness.
3. Technical Game: $0.208-$0.223 Becomes the 'Line of Life and Death'
From a technical analysis perspective, DOGE is currently at a critical point of balance between bulls and bears, with multiple indicator signals contradicting each other; the following core ranges and signals need to be closely monitored:
1. Consolidation Range: Consensus Game between $0.208-$0.223
In the past week, DOGE has oscillated within a narrow range of $0.208 (support level) to $0.223 (resistance level), a range that has formed a 'consensus zone' in the market over the past month: the lower $0.208 is the low point of the past three pullbacks, with strong buying support; the upper $0.223 is a key resistance level since February 2024, which has repeatedly blocked DOGE's upward movement.
Industry technical analysis teams state: 'Only when DOGE's closing price stays above $0.223 and trading volume exceeds $1.5 billion can the upward trend be confirmed; the short-term target can look towards $0.245 (a 10% increase from the current price); conversely, if it breaks the $0.208 support level, it may trigger a chain sell-off, dropping to $0.19 (a 12% decrease from the current price).'
2. Indicator Contradictions: Supertrend Bearish and RSI Neutral Pull
• Supertrend Indicator: Currently showing red, and the indicator line is above DOGE's price, representing a typical 'bearish signal'. This indicator assesses trends by calculating the relationship between price and the Average True Range (ATR); a red signal indicates that the market is in a short-term downtrend with significant downward pressure.
• RSI Indicator: The current value is 52.5, near the 50 'neutral line', indicating a basic balance of bullish and bearish forces with no clear trend. Key attention should be paid to critical value changes—if RSI breaks above 60, bullish strength may increase, possibly pushing prices through resistance; if it drops below 45, bearish forces dominate, significantly increasing the probability of further declines.
4. Risk Warning: Stay Away from Emotional Speculation, Focus on Core Signals
For ordinary investors, the current DOGE ETF rumors should be viewed rationally to avoid blindly following the trend. Based on historical experience, the approval cycle for cryptocurrency ETFs typically ranges from 3 to 6 months, and the risk of rejection is extremely high—up to 2024, the U.S. SEC has only approved ETFs related to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and no meme coin ETFs have been launched.
More critically, DOGE's price heavily relies on market sentiment, lacking practical application scenarios like payments and DeFi, with volatility far exceeding traditional assets: in 2021, DOGE surged from $0.002 to $0.74, then plummeted by 80%; such extreme volatility is likely to erode investors' principal.
When participating in DOGE trading, it is essential to focus on three core signals: first, whether REX Shares officially submits an ETF application and the SEC's preliminary feedback; second, real-time monitoring of whale address holdings and large transaction dynamics through platforms like Nansen and Glassnode; third, closely watching trading volume and the breakout situation of the key range of $0.208-$0.223, resolutely avoiding chasing highs during volume-less rebounds.
