If the Federal Reserve signals a more hawkish stance, or if ETF funds continue to flow out, further declines cannot be ruled out.
Rebound conditions:
◦ A short-term rebound needs to stabilize above $70,000, accompanied by a return of ETF funds or a warming of macro policies.
◦ The current market sentiment is cautious, lacking sustained catalysts for an upward trend.
Bottom judgment: $67,736 is the short-term oscillation center, but it is not an absolute bottom; the overall network cost line around $55,000 is a more critical support level.
• Upward conditions: At least two of the following points must be met for a rebound to potentially begin:
1. The Federal Reserve releases a clear interest rate cut signal;
2. Bitcoin ETF funds turn positive from negative, institutions re-enter the market;
3. The Trump administration introduces substantive crypto-friendly policies.
• Operational suggestions:
Short term: primarily wait and see, waiting for the effectiveness of the $65,000 support, or a breakout signal above $70,000.
Medium to long term: if it breaks below $55,000, consider phased layouts; if it rebounds above $80,000, be cautious of the risk of a second bottom.
Story retrospective
End of 2025 – early 2026: a cliff-like drop
• Core event: ◦ Early 2026: Federal Reserve Chairman nominates Kevin Warsh (a strong anti-inflation stance), market interest rate cut expectations reversed, and the dollar strengthened.
◦ Trump's policy implementation has not met expectations, debunking the narrative of 'digital gold'; compounded by high leverage liquidations and the Korean exchange mishap.
• Impact:
◦ Bitcoin plummeted from $126,195 to the current $67,736.5, a drop of over 46%, leading to massive liquidations of investors.
◦ The total market capitalization evaporated by over $1.3 trillion, and the cryptocurrency industry has entered a new round of adjustments.
🔍 Current price judgment at $67,736
From the current market structure and historical cycles, $67,736 is not the absolute bottom of this round of adjustment, but has entered a critical game zone:
• Technical aspect:
◦ From the historical halving trend, this round of adjustment has retraced about 46% from the high of $126,195, but has not yet reached the historical bear market average decline of 70% or more.
◦ Key support level:
◦ First support: $65,000 (recent fluctuation lower bound)
◦ Second support: $55,000 (the realized value of the entire network, i.e., the average cost line for most holders)
◦ Strong support: $43,000 (an important platform before the 2024 halving)
• Capital aspect:
◦ The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has continued to see net outflows since November 2025, totaling nearly $4 billion, with institutional buying yet to return.
◦ Core institutions like MicroStrategy have a holding cost of about $76,056, and the current price has put them in a floating loss; if it continues to drop, it may trigger passive selling pressure.