👉🏻 Let's take a look at some data to evaluate whether this 'amount' is worth risking everything and sacrificing one's family to dive into the fierce battle.
🔥 Looking back at 2024:
• The total size of the global Forex market is estimated at around 7-7.5 trillion USD/day, but the retail segment only accounts for about 5-10% of the volume, mainly consisting of small transactions with high risk.
• The rebate/fee share accounts for about 4-5% of the total volume of the forex market, equivalent to 280-350 billion USD/day in trading with rebates, but this figure is largely inflated by unfair competition and short-term promotional programs.
• Revenue from rebates only accounts for 0.05-0.1% of total volume, resulting in a total global rebate value of only tens of billions of USD/year – a small figure compared to the legal risks, fraud, and financial losses that IBs and traders face.
🔥 Expected 2025-2026
• It is forecasted that by 2025, the scale of rebates may grow in line with the FX market, reaching about 350-400 billion USD/day in rebate transactions, but with a CAGR of only 4-5%/year, this rate is easily affected by global economic volatility and tightening regulations.
• By 2026, rebates may account for a higher proportion due to intense competition, but this mainly benefits large exchanges, while individual traders and smaller organizations increasingly face difficulties with hidden costs and fraud risks, with volume rebates estimated to only reach 400-450 billion USD/day.
• The growth rate of rebates in FX is forecasted to maintain a CAGR of about 6-14%/year from 2024-2026, but this number largely depends on the region and products, with a risk of decline if an economic downturn or industry scandals occur.
🔥 In general:
The backcom market in FX trading in 2024 will only have a global scale of several billion USD, with slow growth projected until 2025-2026, especially as cost optimization pressure and competition among exchanges increasingly lead to higher risks than profits, making it not worth the risk.
