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梨浅Grace
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#比特币回落至63000美元附近
Tide recedes, gathering strength for the right moment: In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's market behavior around $63000
"When mountains are heavy and waters are blocked, one doubts there is no way; yet in the dark willows and bright flowers, another village appears." As of February 25, Bitcoin has retreated to around $63000, oscillating with a 24-hour drop of approximately 3.5%, hitting a low of $62700. The market has entered a critical game stage after consecutive corrections. This round of adjustment is not a one-sided bear market, but rather a result of macro pressure, technical correction, and capital game resonance. In the short term, the main focus is on forming a bottom through oscillation, while in the medium term, we still need to wait for signal confirmation.
From the news perspective, multiple bearish factors are intertwining to suppress the market. The uncertainty of global trade tariffs is rising, and risk assets are generally under pressure, with capital flowing back from high-volatility tracks to safe-haven assets; the expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are fluctuating, the US dollar index is strengthening in phases, and liquidity in the crypto market is tightening. Additionally, over 120,000 people across the network faced liquidation within 24 hours, with forced liquidation of leveraged funds exacerbating selling pressure, as institutional adjustments and retail panic selling overlapped, leading to a rapid price decline. However, on-chain data shows significant buy orders in the $60000—$63000 range, with long-term capital accumulating at lower levels, providing underlying support for the market.
The technical aspect shows features of oscillation bottoming and a slowdown of bearish trends. On the daily level, after the price fell below the key support of $65000, it formed a short-term defense band around $63000, with a strong support at the 200-week moving average of $58500, where historically, two significant declines have stabilized and rebounded. On the 4-hour cycle, a bottom divergence pattern of the MACD indicator is beginning to show, and the KDJ has entered the oversold zone, with the downward momentum gradually weakening, indicating a short-term technical rebound demand of 3%—5%. Resistance above focuses on $65000—66000; breaking through this range can reverse the weakness; below, support looks at $62000 and $59000, and only a valid breakdown below $59000 will open up further downward space.
The current market is like a "hidden dragon in the abyss"; short-term fluctuations do not change long-term logic. Core benefits such as regulatory normalization and steady increase in institutional holdings remain unchanged; the essence of the adjustment is the clearing of overvaluation bubbles and the release of risks. In terms of operations, short-term strategies should focus on light positions to speculate on rebounds, with strict stop-loss settings; medium to long-term investors can gradually position in the support range, waiting for clearer macro policies and increased trading volume.
After the tide recedes, the tide will surely rise. The oscillation of Bitcoin around $63000 is a gathering of strength rather than a downturn. Only by respecting the market and following the trend can one grasp opportunities amidst fluctuations and patiently await the breakthrough of the market's "bright flowers in dark willows."
Tide recedes, gathering strength for the right moment: In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's market behavior around $63000
"When mountains are heavy and waters are blocked, one doubts there is no way; yet in the dark willows and bright flowers, another village appears." As of February 25, Bitcoin has retreated to around $63000, oscillating with a 24-hour drop of approximately 3.5%, hitting a low of $62700. The market has entered a critical game stage after consecutive corrections. This round of adjustment is not a one-sided bear market, but rather a result of macro pressure, technical correction, and capital game resonance. In the short term, the main focus is on forming a bottom through oscillation, while in the medium term, we still need to wait for signal confirmation.
From the news perspective, multiple bearish factors are intertwining to suppress the market. The uncertainty of global trade tariffs is rising, and risk assets are generally under pressure, with capital flowing back from high-volatility tracks to safe-haven assets; the expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are fluctuating, the US dollar index is strengthening in phases, and liquidity in the crypto market is tightening. Additionally, over 120,000 people across the network faced liquidation within 24 hours, with forced liquidation of leveraged funds exacerbating selling pressure, as institutional adjustments and retail panic selling overlapped, leading to a rapid price decline. However, on-chain data shows significant buy orders in the $60000—$63000 range, with long-term capital accumulating at lower levels, providing underlying support for the market.
The technical aspect shows features of oscillation bottoming and a slowdown of bearish trends. On the daily level, after the price fell below the key support of $65000, it formed a short-term defense band around $63000, with a strong support at the 200-week moving average of $58500, where historically, two significant declines have stabilized and rebounded. On the 4-hour cycle, a bottom divergence pattern of the MACD indicator is beginning to show, and the KDJ has entered the oversold zone, with the downward momentum gradually weakening, indicating a short-term technical rebound demand of 3%—5%. Resistance above focuses on $65000—66000; breaking through this range can reverse the weakness; below, support looks at $62000 and $59000, and only a valid breakdown below $59000 will open up further downward space.
The current market is like a "hidden dragon in the abyss"; short-term fluctuations do not change long-term logic. Core benefits such as regulatory normalization and steady increase in institutional holdings remain unchanged; the essence of the adjustment is the clearing of overvaluation bubbles and the release of risks. In terms of operations, short-term strategies should focus on light positions to speculate on rebounds, with strict stop-loss settings; medium to long-term investors can gradually position in the support range, waiting for clearer macro policies and increased trading volume.
After the tide recedes, the tide will surely rise. The oscillation of Bitcoin around $63000 is a gathering of strength rather than a downturn. Only by respecting the market and following the trend can one grasp opportunities amidst fluctuations and patiently await the breakthrough of the market's "bright flowers in dark willows."