Bitcoin Recent Market Analysis Report (September 2025)

I. Price Fluctuation: Rate Cut Expectations Drive Breakthrough and Technical Game

Recently, Bitcoin has shown a pattern of intense volatility. On September 12, driven by strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, the price of Bitcoin briefly broke through $116,000, reaching a 19-day high, but subsequently fell back to around $115,000. Previously, the market had experienced a deep correction, with prices dropping to a two-month low of $107,000 at the beginning of September due to concerns about liquidity triggered by weak non-farm payroll data, leading to nearly 70,000 liquidations. The technical analysis indicates that $115,000 constitutes short-term support, while the $116,000-$118,000 range is key resistance. The RSI indicator is neutral to bullish, but the MACD signal line remains in a downward channel, with fierce long-short competition.

II. Driving Factors: Macroeconomic Policy and Capital Market Resonance

1. Monetary Policy Expectations Dominate: The US PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in August, while the CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, coupled with a surge in initial unemployment claims to a four-year high, strengthening expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 (with an 88% probability). The easing expectations have driven capital from traditional assets to Bitcoin, with spot ETF inflows totaling $1.39 billion in the first two weeks of September.

2. Policy and Market Sentiment Resonance: The Trump administration's "National Cryptocurrency Reserve Plan" has released a regulatory-friendly signal, alleviating concerns about policy repression. On-chain data shows that the non-liquid supply of Bitcoin has reached a new high of 14.3 million coins, while exchange reserves have decreased by 18.3%, indicating strong confidence among long-term holders.

III. Future Outlook: Technical Support and Risks Coexist

In the short term, Bitcoin needs to stabilize above $115,000 to maintain its upward trend. If it breaks through the resistance at $116,000, it may challenge the $118,000-$120,000 range. The key support level has moved down to $113,000 (50% Fibonacci retracement level), and if it falls below, it may trigger programmatic selling, probing the psychological level of $110,000. Risk factors include: ① the Federal Reserve's rate cut being less than expected; ② if September's non-farm payroll data is stronger than expected, it may trigger concerns about liquidity tightening; ③ historical data shows that Bitcoin has seasonal weakness risk with 8 declines in September. Overall, favorable policies and expectations of liquidity easing still support the upward trend, but caution is needed regarding technical overbought conditions and market sentiment reversals. #加密市场反弹 #CPI数据来袭 #BNB创新高