1. Price Fluctuations: Rate cut expectations drive breakthroughs and technical gameplays
Recently, Bitcoin has shown a dramatic fluctuation pattern. On September 12, driven by strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the price of Bitcoin once broke through $116,000, reaching a new high in 19 days. This upward momentum continued with Wednesday's breakthrough of a two-week consolidation range, with a 24-hour increase of 1.5%, and the current price stabilizing above $115,000. However, at the beginning of September, the market experienced a deep correction, with Bitcoin dropping to a two-month low of $107,000, mainly due to the significantly lower-than-expected U.S. August non-farm payroll data, which raised liquidity concerns, leading to nearly 70,000 liquidations and a sharp decrease in trading volume by 72%.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has formed short-term support near $115,000, while the range of $116,000 to $118,000 constitutes key resistance. The RSI indicator shows market sentiment is neutral to bullish, but the MACD signal line is still in a downtrend, reflecting intense competition between bulls and bears. Notably, on August 14, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $124,000, and then retreated due to profit-taking and policy uncertainty, highlighting the market's high sensitivity to macroeconomic signals.
2. Driving factors: Macro policy and capital flows resonate.
1. Monetary policy expectations dominate: The U.S. August PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.1%, while the CPI year-on-year rose by 2.9%, in line with expectations. Additionally, the weekly initial jobless claims surged to a four-year high, reinforcing the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17 (with a probability of 88%). The expectation of loose liquidity has driven funds from traditional assets to Bitcoin, with spot ETF inflows totaling $1.39 billion in the first two weeks of September, reaching an eight-week high.
2. Policy and market sentiment resonance: The "National Crypto Reserve Plan" proposed by the Trump administration in March has not led to immediate increases, but it has released a regulatory-friendly signal, alleviating market concerns about policy repression. Furthermore, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the (Genius Act) in July, which provides a framework for stablecoin regulation and further boosts market confidence.
3. On-chain data and capital flows: On-chain analysis shows that since Bitcoin rebounded from $111,000, bullish capital has dominated the market, with open contract volume continuing to increase. However, there are still divergences in the derivatives market—futures traders are betting on Ethereum, while ETF funds are concentrating on Bitcoin, reflecting institutional preference for core assets.
3. Future outlook: Technical support coexists with risks.
In the short term, Bitcoin needs to stabilize at $115,000 to maintain the upward trend. If it breaks through the resistance level of $116,000, it may challenge the range of $118,000 to $120,000. The key support level has moved down to $113,000 (50% Fibonacci retracement level). If it falls below this, it could trigger programmatic selling, probing the psychological level of $110,000.
Risk factors include: ① The Federal Reserve may not cut rates as much as expected or may release hawkish signals; ② If the September non-farm data is stronger than expected, it could raise concerns about liquidity tightening; ③ On-chain data shows that some whales are still holding high-leverage short positions, indicating ongoing extreme volatility risk. Additionally, September has historically been a "soft month" for Bitcoin (with 8 declines in the past 12 years), and seasonal factors could exacerbate retracement pressure.
Overall, Bitcoin still has upward potential under favorable policy and loose liquidity expectations, but caution is needed regarding technical overbought conditions and the risk of market sentiment reversal. Investors should focus on key events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and non-farm data, dynamically adjusting their positions.
