1. Price and market sentiment
1. Bitcoin (BTC) is in a volatile consolidation
The current price of Bitcoin is $115,200, fluctuating in the range of $115,000-$116,000. Although the daily chart shows a bullish arrangement, trading volume has significantly shrunk, and market momentum is insufficient, lacking a clear direction in the short term. Technical analysis indicates that if it breaks through the resistance level of $116,000, it may open up space for upward movement; otherwise, it may retest the support at $112,000. The market sentiment index (Fear and Greed Index) has risen to 51, entering the 'Neutral' zone, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.
2. Ethereum (ETH) is under pressure testing support
Ethereum's price has fallen to $4,580, close to the key support level of $4,455. The selling pressure triggered by the Bybit hacking incident has eased somewhat recently, but the overall performance of the DeFi sector remains weak, with a 24-hour trading volume drop of 8%. Technical benefits from shard upgrades (such as TPS surpassing 100,000 transactions per second) have yet to be fully reflected in the price.
3. Clear differentiation among mainstream altcoins
◦ Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE) and others are driven by the spillover effects of the Ethereum ecosystem, with weekly gains exceeding 10%.
◦ TRON (TRX) breaks through the $0.34 resistance level due to a $1 billion buyback plan.
◦ Worldcoin (WLD) breaks through the $1 mark, with technical analysis indicating further upward potential in the short term.
II. Policy and Regulatory Dynamics
1. The positioning of blockchain in the UK-US technology agreement
The UK and the US plan to sign a 'breakthrough' technology cooperation agreement next week, focusing on AI and quantum computing. Industry groups (such as the UK Cryptoasset Business Council) are lobbying to include blockchain in the agreement framework, warning that excluding digital assets could marginalize the UK in the global financial standards competition. This trend may affect future transatlantic crypto regulatory cooperation.
2. China's regulatory framework and pilot breakthroughs
◦ Domestic Policy: The People's Bank of China issued (virtual currency regulatory policy) in March 2025, clearly stating that 'virtual currencies do not have legal compensatory status', requiring platforms to report large transactions (≥500,000 yuan) in real time and promote a blockchain traceability system.
◦ Greater Bay Area Pilot: Mainland residents can legally invest in cryptocurrencies through financial institutions in Hong Kong and Macau, with the Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETF becoming one of the first pilot products. This marks a significant step for China on the path to compliance.
3. The US SEC delays key ETF decision
The SEC has postponed the approval of BlackRock and Truth Social's Bitcoin ETFs until September 18, mainly due to the need for further evaluation of the impact of physical purchase mechanisms on the market. If approved, it may attract about $2 billion in incremental funds. The current market's expectations for ETF approval have cooled, with Bitcoin futures premium rates falling below 3%.
III. Institutional Movements and Market Risks
1. Corporate accumulation vs. whale sell-offs
◦ MicroStrategy increased its holdings by 326,000 Bitcoins in April-May 2025, with a holding cost of $37.9 billion, but its financing model through stock issuance to purchase coins has sparked controversy.
◦ Early whale sell-off: Bitcoin holders who built positions in 2011 at less than $10 have continued to reduce their holdings, with a cumulative sell-off of over 50,000 coins in the past three months, putting pressure on the market.
2. Macroeconomics and Geopolitical Risks
◦ Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations: The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting, which, if realized, could drive further increases in crypto assets, but caution is needed regarding policy reversal risks.
◦ Escalating trade frictions: The Trump administration threatens to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, which could trigger a flight to safety into gold, indirectly suppressing risk appetite for cryptocurrencies.#BNB创新高 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #加密市场反弹
