I. Scenario Analysis and Core Logic

1. Interest rate cut announced (Probability 91.8%)

- Policy Impact: If the Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis point rate cut in the early hours of September 18, it will release signals of liquidity easing, theoretically benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. However, caution is warranted regarding the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' effect — historically, Bitcoin has often retraced after favorable rate cut decisions, such as the price drop following the 2019 rate cut.

- Market Divergence: Currently, Bitcoin and gold are showing a 'goldenization' trend, meaning their prices are increasingly driven by macroeconomic narratives. If the dollar weakens after the rate cut, Bitcoin may rise in tandem with gold, but attention should be paid to whether funds are shifting from traditional assets to cryptocurrencies.

- Technical Analysis: Key support levels are $112,500-$115,000, resistance levels are $118,000-$120,000. If the price has significantly risen before the decision (e.g., breaking $120,000), the risk of a pullback significantly increases; if the price remains near $115,000, a rebound may occur after the interest rate cut.

2. Interest Rate Cut Below Expectations or Delayed

- Policy Impact: If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates or only releases dovish signals without cutting, it may trigger market concerns about a “hard landing” in the economy, leading to short-term selling of Bitcoin.

- Technical Analysis: Bitcoin may test the psychological level of $110,000, or even the strong support at $103,000-$105,000. At this time, pay attention to on-chain indicators (such as exchange reserves, miner selling volume) for any deterioration.

3. Unexpected Interest Rate Cut (Probability 8.2%)

- Policy Impact: If a 50 basis point cut occurs, it may trigger optimistic sentiments about liquidity excess, pushing Bitcoin to break the $120,000 resistance.

- Risk Warning: Unexpected interest rate cuts may exacerbate market volatility, be cautious of short-term pullbacks triggered by leveraged funds' liquidation.

2. Operation Strategies and Risk Control Suggestions

(1) Interest Rate Cut Scenario

1. Short-term (1-3 days post-decision)

- Strategy: If Bitcoin has risen to the range of $118,000-$120,000 before the decision, consider reducing some positions at highs (e.g., profit of 10%-15%) and buy back near $115,000.

- Risk Control: Stop loss if it falls below $112,500 to prevent deep pullbacks; if the price stabilizes at $118,000, consider lightly chasing the price up to $120,000.

2. Medium-term (1-2 weeks post-decision)

- Strategy: If Bitcoin retraces to $112,500-$115,000 and trading volume shrinks, consider building positions in batches, targeting $120,000.

- Signal Tracking: Pay attention to the fund flow of Bitcoin ETFs (such as GBTC premium rate), futures open contracts, and funding rate changes. If ETFs continue to see inflows and funding rates turn positive, it indicates strengthening bullish momentum.

(2) Interest Rate Cut Below Expectations Scenario

1. Short-term (1-3 days post-decision)

- Strategy: If Bitcoin falls below $110,000, decisively stop loss to avoid deep losses.

- Arbitrage Opportunities: Can hedge risks through derivatives tools (e.g., short futures) or position for rebounds after price stabilizes.

2. Medium-term (1-2 weeks post-decision)

- Strategy: If the price dips to $103,000-$105,000 and panic selling occurs (e.g., fear index drops below 20), consider trying to buy on the left side, but strictly limit positions to within 10% of total capital.

- Signal Tracking: Pay attention to whether institutions like MicroStrategy are increasing Bitcoin holdings, and whether regulatory policies show marginal improvements (e.g., progress on the U.S. Clear Act).

(3) Unexpected Interest Rate Cut Scenario

1. Short-term (1-3 days post-decision)

- Strategy: If Bitcoin breaks above $120,000, consider lightly chasing the price, targeting $125,000, but set stop loss (e.g., if it falls below $118,000).

- Risk Warning: Unexpected interest rate cuts may cause funds to flow back from altcoins to Bitcoin, be cautious of sector rotation risks.

3. Key Indicators and Dynamic Adjustments

1. Sentiment and Fund Flow

- Fear and Greed Index: If the index rises from the current neutral level (49-51) to above 75 post-decision, it indicates that the market has entered a greedy zone, necessitating position reduction for risk avoidance.

- ETF Fund Flow: If Bitcoin ETF continues to see outflows post-decision (e.g., daily net outflow exceeding $100 million), it may indicate that institutions are taking profits.

2. On-chain Data

- Exchange Reserves: If reserves on platforms like Coinbase continue to decline, it indicates that long-term holders are hoarding coins, supporting prices.

- Miner Behavior: If miner selling volume surges (e.g., exceeding 10,000 coins in a single day), it may suppress short-term prices.

3. Derivatives Market

- Open Contracts and Funding Rates: If Bitcoin futures open contracts exceed $20 billion and funding rates turn positive, it indicates an advantage for leveraged bulls, be cautious of a long squeeze.

- Perpetual Contract Premium: If the premium rate exceeds 5%, arbitrage funds may sell spot, leading to price pullbacks.

4. Historical Cases and Lessons Learned

1. Interest Rate Cut in 2019: Bitcoin rose to $13,000 before the interest rate cut due to expectations, but fell to $9,000 after the decision, a decline of 30%.

2. Interest Rate Cut in 2024: Due to the favorable policies of Trump, the inflow of spot ETF funds, and corporate purchases (e.g., MicroStrategy), Bitcoin continued to rise after the interest rate cut.

3. August 2025 Market: Bitcoin broke above $120,000 due to rising interest rate cut expectations, but subsequently fell back to $115,000 due to market concerns over tightening regulations.

5. Summary and Action Guide

1. Core Strategy:

- Before the Interest Rate Cut: Lightly watch or position at lows (e.g., near $115,000), avoid chasing highs.

- Post-Decision: Adjust dynamically based on price reaction — if it rises to resistance, reduce holdings; if it drops to support, accumulate in batches.

- Unexpected Scenario: Respond flexibly, use derivatives tools to capture volatility opportunities, but strict stop loss is required.

2. Risk Control Principles:

- Single trade stop loss not exceeding 3% of principal, total position controlled within 20%.

- Avoid excessive leverage, especially during periods of high volatility around decisions.

3. Dynamic Tracking:

- Key attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2 AM on September 18 and Powell's press conference, while monitoring real-time changes in Bitcoin price, fund flow, and on-chain indicators.

- If the market experiences extreme volatility (e.g., single-day price changes exceed 10%), consider temporarily closing positions and re-entering once the trend becomes clear.

Risk Warning: Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, the above strategies are based on historical data and current market expectations, and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance and closely monitor macroeconomic and regulatory policy changes.#BNB创新高 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC