### Analysis of the Impact of Federal Reserve Officials' Speeches on Cryptocurrency (as of March 3, 2026, 1:46 PM +08)

#### Expected Content and Impact of Today's Speech
- Williams' Speech (22:55 ET, Topic: Not specified, but as a permanent voter on the FOMC, often discusses the overall economy and policy):
  - Expected Key Points: Based on history, Williams may reiterate the Federal Reserve's vigilance regarding inflation, but emphasize the economy 'turning the corner,' and discuss growth expectations for 2026 (GDP 2.5%-2.75%), easing inflation (target 2%), and the impact of tariffs (seen as a one-time shock, not a persistent source of inflation). He may hint that interest rates 'still have room for further adjustment,' and if dovish signals are strong (such as suggesting a rate cut in March), it will be positive for crypto.
  - Potential impact today: If the speech maintains a dovish stance (such as confirming that policy is 'well-positioned' and the economic outlook is 'favorable'), it may drive BTC/ETH/SOL to rebound 1-3% in the short term, similar to the rebound of BTC from $81k to $84k (+3.7%) after the November 2025 speech. Conversely, if emphasizing inflation risks or delaying rate cuts, crypto may correct by 0.5-2%. Current market sentiment is extremely fearful (Fear & Greed Index 10-16), dovish signals may easily trigger a short squeeze. Impact level: medium to large (high weight of permanent voters), but low weekend liquidity may amplify volatility.
- Schmid's speech (23:10 ET, topic: monetary policy and economic outlook):
  - Key points of expectation: As a 2028 FOMC voter, Schmid often holds a hawkish stance, likely opposing further rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation is 'too hot' (as pointed out in January 2026 with a 2.7% CPI consistent with 3% inflation, above the 2% target), and warning that price shocks (like tariffs) may persist if not controlled. He may reiterate that labor market issues cannot be solved solely by rate cuts and predict 'solid growth' for the economy in 2026 but require tightening policies.
  - Potential impact today: If hawkish signals are strong (such as clear opposition to a March rate cut), it may depress crypto by 1-4%, similar to the market's expectation drop in rate cut probability after the February 2026 speech, leading to a 2-5% short-term BTC correction. Conversely, if neutral or acknowledging economic uncertainty, the impact is limited. Impact level: moderate (non-permanent voter, but hawkish views often trigger interest rate expectation adjustments).
- Overall impact today: The two speeches are only 15 minutes apart, which may amplify market volatility. If Williams is dovish and Schmid is hawkish, crypto may rise and then fall (net neutral -1%). Geopolitical tensions (U.S.-Iran/Hormuz Strait oil supply risks) compounded, if the speeches do not alleviate inflation concerns, crypto is easily affected by global risk aversion. Currently, BTC remains steady above $68k, ETH/SOL weaker than BTC; volatility may rise to 15-20% within 48 hours after the speeches. Polymarket shows a probability of March rate cuts at approximately 45%, which may adjust to 30-60% after the speeches.
#### Historically, their speeches have impacted cryptocurrency
- Williams (dovish tendency, often favorable for crypto):
  - Significant impact: As a permanent voter, his speeches often directly change interest rate expectations. On November 21, 2025, hinting at a December rate cut led to an immediate BTC rebound of +3.7% ($81k→$84k), total liquidation of $885M (long positions lost $773M). On December 15, 2025, stating that policy is 'well-positioned' improved crypto market sentiment, BTC +2-5% over the week.
  - Historical pattern: Dovish signals (like 'still room for adjustment') average a +1-5% intraday impact on crypto; during hawkish times, -1-3%. The impact lasts 1-3 days, depending on whether it changes the CME FedWatch rate cut probability (e.g., from 50%→70%).
- Schmid (hawkish tendency, often negatively impacts crypto):
  - Medium to large impact: As a voter, his hawkish views often push up U.S. Treasury yields and depress risk assets. On February 11-12, 2026, opposing a rate cut led to a drop in the probability of a March rate cut from >50% to <20%, with BTC correcting by 2-4% (crypto overall -3-5%). On January 15, 2026, emphasizing that inflation is 'too hot' triggered short-term selling pressure on crypto of -2%.
  - Historical pattern: Hawkish speeches average a -1-4% intraday impact on crypto; if combined with other hawkish signals (like Powell), the impact magnifies to -5-10%. Lasting effects for 2-5 days, especially before FOMC meetings.
- Overall historical impact: Federal Reserve officials' speeches significantly impact crypto (average volatility of 2-5%), much higher than the stock market (1-2%) because crypto relies on a low interest rate environment. High interest rates depress valuations, increase borrowing costs, and strengthen the dollar (negative for crypto). In 2025-2026, dovish speeches (like Williams) average +3%; hawkish (like Schmid) -2.5%. The impact depends on whether rate cut expectations change (CME tools show if probability changes >10% it magnifies).