$CRCL – stock “USDC” running ahead of the stablecoin wave

From the bottom around 50 USD on February 5, CRCL has surged to the range of 100–104 USD in early March 2026, almost doubling in less than a month, thanks to the Q4 report exceeding expectations + cash flow sheltering into stablecoins amid Middle Eastern tensions and Mizuho raising the target to 100 USD.

In Q4/2025, Circle reported revenue of approximately 770 million USD, +77% YoY, EPS 0.43 USD far exceeding forecasts, adjusted EBITDA increased more than 4 times; USDC in circulation ~75.3 billion USD (+72% YoY) with on-chain volume in Q4 reaching up to 11.9 trillion USD, indicating strong demand for stablecoins is increasing significantly. (stocktitan.net marketwatch.com barrons.com)

Currently, USDC has a market capitalization of about 76 billion USD, with a 24-hour trading volume of ~15–16 billion USD, ranking in the top 10 of the entire market and being heavily used on major exchanges like Binance.

- Circle's profit largely depends on interest rates on USDC reserves (T-bills, deposits), so the context of high interest rates, rising oil prices, and expectations that the Fed will find it difficult to cut rates soon are “tailwinds”, explaining why CRCL has risen sharply against many other risky assets during tensions between Iran and the US.

- Technically, after the gap up following Q4, CRCL has been noted to break the downtrend, forming a “three white soldiers” candle pattern; the 100–104 USD range is currently a short-term resistance, maintaining above 95–100 still has a chance to test 110–120, but if it fails it could retest 75–80 or go deeper to the bottom range of 50–55.

- Risks: In 2025, the stock once fell about 59% despite growth, mainly due to concerns over the GENIUS Act and stablecoin competition; the current business model still heavily relies on reserve interest, so if the interest rate cut cycle really occurs or new regulations tighten profit margins, the x2 momentum at the beginning of 2026 could easily lead to very strong fluctuations.

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