Brothers, wait until I lose weight

The 4th issue of 2026 review, has the turning point of the phase arrived? Can this wave form a medium-term rebound, and how much can it rise?

The Middle East war has caused a surge in gold and oil prices, while the South Korean stock market has plummeted. With no hope of interest rate cuts within half a year, so many negative factors have not led to a drop back to 60,000. What should drop doesn't drop, so it must rise! After the conflict, Bitcoin has tested 63,000 three times and is stabilizing at the bottom. In recent days, it has effectively broken through the short-term downtrend channel with increased volume and has also exceeded the upper edge of the 72,000 range, forming a new upward channel. The trend structure of Bitcoin has undergone significant changes and is currently confirming the breakout through a pullback. The selling volume on the downside is not large, and if it can stabilize, it will continue the upward trend.

Being conservative, it can still be seen as a range oscillation market. The key resistance level is still around 74,500 in the short term, and those with heavy positions can reduce their spots on the highs. As long as there is no significant downward volume, I believe it should be able to break through after trying a few more times here. It won't be too late to chase after the breakout; it’s better to be cautious in a bear market.

Looking optimistically at the extended cycle, after six consecutive weekly and monthly declines, a rebound from the oversold condition has already begun. The weekly level rebound may continue, and there is hope for this wave of rebound to sustain a one to two-month oscillating upward trend. Whether it starts now or takes more time is just a matter of time; it will come sooner or later.

US stock ETFs have recently seen a consistent net inflow, and MicroStrategy and Circle have also experienced substantial rebounds lately. Yesterday, a positive news about OKB led to a more than 50% surge, indicating a recovery in market confidence and liquidity. If it can indeed develop into a medium-term rebound, I still see the peak of Bitcoin rebounding to the neckline position near 83,000 of the head and shoulders formation. This is a great opportunity to short, and then focus on the middle track of the weekly Bollinger Bands, which will reach around 85,000 next week. After hitting the top and breaking below the middle track, it has not been able to stand above it since then.

These positions are excellent points to start laying out long-term short positions. However, for shorting, I will prioritize choosing SOL; I have already placed a low-leverage short position at 120 and will watch the changes. Be cautious in your actions; although I am bullish on Bitcoin, it is still a good strategy to short altcoins at highs!
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