The price of OIL surged 58% since the beginning of the year, with Brent crude oil reaching 117.16 USD/barrel and WTI hitting a daily high of 118.82 USD, nearly doubling compared to the beginning of the year.
As of March 2026, WTI crude oil prices have increased by 73.61% compared to the same period last year, with a rise of 35% since January 1 amid escalating conflict in Iran.
Trading volume exploded as the CME Group reported a record of over 8 million energy contracts per day, with implied volatility increasing fourfold compared to the beginning of the year.
Market Overview
The market is pricing in the worst-case scenario of supply disruptions, as the Strait of Hormuz faces the prospect of actual closure, affecting 20% of global oil demand
Brent and WTI crude oil futures show extreme volatility with daily ranges far exceeding historical averages
Global energy markets are reacting strongly to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
Key Driving Factors
U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026, triggering retaliatory attacks on oil and gas facilities and shipping routes in the Persian Gulf
Disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz have nearly paralyzed maritime traffic, while major producers cut output due to storage filling up
Qatar halts LNG production following drone attacks by Iran, reducing global LNG supply estimates by about 19%
Geopolitical risk premiums push oil prices up by an additional $4–10 per barrel, while the Global Instability Index reaches record highs
Trading Strategy
Key resistance levels at $123.00 and $130.00, with the psychological level of $100 having been breached; potential target is $150.00 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
Support levels identified at $77.84, $72.36–$72.22, and $71.47–$71.38; the previous resistance at $77.65 now acts as support
Position size recommendation: limit exposure to 20–25% of capital due to extreme volatility, place stop-loss orders at $75.00 for long positions
Risk Warning
An extremely volatile environment, with prices sensitive to geopolitical developments hour by hour; high-leverage positions face significant liquidation risks
The market is currently pricing in the worst-case scenario; any cooling off or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a rapid correction of 15–20%, bringing prices down to the $90.00–$95.00 range
Recommend reducing leverage to a maximum of 2–3 times, strictly applying stop-loss discipline and maintaining cash reserves
