SUMMARY OF IMPORTANT ECONOMIC EVENTS THIS WEEK
Currently, $BTC has dropped to $66k - CryptoQuant states that BTC technicals are still in a bear market, correlated with Nasdaq up to 78%.
Global conflict situation: The UAE has just conducted its first airstrike on Iran. Oil is at $85/barrel, Polymarket is pricing in a ~45% probability that oil will exceed $120 by the end of March. Nikkei is down 6%, Kospi is down 8%. BTC is relatively stable this time — but if tensions escalate further, the risk of a quick dump remains.
🗓️ 4 macro data points to pay attention to:
📅 Wednesday 11/03 — 19:30 (VN): February CPI Forecast: 2.4% | Core CPI: 2.5% — the most important of the week. Exceeding forecasts → Fed postpones interest rate cuts → BTC faces pressure.
📅 Thursday 12/03 — 20:30 (VN): Jobless claims Forecast: 215K. If higher → weak labor market → slight increase in expectations for interest rate cuts.
📅 Friday 13/03 — 19:30 (VN): Q4 GDP + Core PCE GDP forecast 1.5%, Core PCE remains at 0.4%. PCE is the inflation index favored by the Fed — if it doesn't cool down, the Fed meeting on 18/3 is almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged.
Users should avoid high leverage around data release times. Monitor BTC ETF flows after Wednesday's CPI - that is a more reliable signal than short-term prices.
Via @Binance Vietnam