Macroeconomic analysis for $BTC
The rise in oil prices above 100 USD has made the likelihood of the US cutting interest rates – which has been a significant support for the crypto market – almost non-existent. The Fed's rate cut in March had already been ruled out before the conflict occurred; now, with WTI reaching 111 USD and no signs of easing tensions, expectations for a rate reduction in June are also very slim. This situation has caused the dollar to remain strong, real interest rates to be high, and Bitcoin to continue being seen as a risky asset rather than a store of value — all of which is unfavorable for a prolonged recovery.
The level of disruption this time is unprecedented in modern history. The Strait of Hormuz has never been completely closed during conflicts involving the US. Gulf countries have had to cut production due to full storage, while also worrying that oil infrastructure from Tehran to Kuwait City is under attack – and everything is happening simultaneously.
