Last week we saw how volatility can 'unravel' deposits on news about token movements. Many newcomers think: 'Unlocking means the price will drop, we need to short it.' But the market often plays against the crowd.
Here are 3 rules that will protect your money:
1️⃣ 'Buy the Rumor, Sell the News'
Often the price drops a few days before the unlock because large players secure profits in advance. When the event itself occurs, short sellers start to get 'shaved' on a sudden bounce.
2️⃣ Look at the percentage of the unlock
If 0.1% of the issuance flows into the market — that's noise. If 5% or more — that's serious pressure. Always check the data in the project's cabinet or in Binance analytics.
3️⃣ Linear vs Stepwise
If investor tokens are unlocked little by little every day (linearly), the market 'swallows' it. However, a sharp injection of a large batch (Cliff) is almost always a reason for price manipulation.
🛠 MY TACTIC:
I never enter a position 5 minutes before the event. I wait for the first market reaction, look at trading volumes, and only then make a decision. It's better to take a 5% pure movement than to guess on coffee grounds.
💡 TIP: If the coin you hold long-term drops at the unlock — often this is the best moment to add to your position at a discount, if the fundamentals of the project have not changed.
🔥 POLL: Has there been a time when you sold in a panic before the unlock, and the price shot up?
🙋♂️ Yes, a classic genre...
🛡 No, I always look at the volume chart.
🧘♂️ I am a holder, these unlocks do not scare me.