The Iran-USA war, driver of bitcoin
The military escalation between Iran and the United States immediately triggered a shockwave in global markets, particularly in oil and cryptocurrencies.
But unlike previous episodes where crypto mainly served as a temporary safe haven, this crisis has seen a massive influx of capital into the sector, counter to panic selling in other markets.
Massive purchases support crypto
At the heart of this turbulent period, major institutional buyers played a crucial role in stabilizing the market. ETFs #bitcoin $BTC listed in the United States recorded over $700 million in net inflows this month alone, according to SoSoValue. In the previous week, these flows had already reached $568 million. Since the end of February, spot ETFs #Bitcoin❗ have shown a positive balance of $1.7 billion after four consecutive months of net outflows. This sharp turnaround reflects a renewed appetite for the digital asset despite geopolitical uncertainty.
Meanwhile, #MicroStrategy (MSTR) strengthened its position by purchasing nearly 18,000 bitcoins between March 2 and 8, bringing its total holdings to over 738,000 $BTC . The company now holds about 3.7% of the entire circulating supply. This type of massive accumulation helps absorb selling pressure and support prices during critical phases.
Trump reassures, altcoins rebound
The climate remained tense until Monday evening, when Donald Trump declared that the conflict with Iran would be "resolved very soon" and that U.S. military objectives were "practically achieved." This announcement immediately calmed the markets: bitcoin rose above $70,000 on Tuesday morning in Asia. On the altcoin side, Ether jumped to $2,029 (+2.6% in 24 hours), Solana $SOL climbed to nearly $86 (+2.9%) even though its price remains far from historical highs. $BNB (+2.6%) and XRP (+1.7%, around $1.37) also benefited from the general relief.
On Polymarket, the probability that bitcoin reaches $75,000 in March rose from 34% to 56% in a few hours.
The regained confidence translated into a record influx into crypto funds: CoinShares reports that over $619 million flowed into these products in the week ending last Friday. Bitcoin-backed products account for most of it with more than $521 million in just seven days.
Record Bitcoin-S&P 500 correlation
While some still viewed bitcoin as an asset decoupled from traditional markets, the current crisis shows unprecedented synchronization with Wall Street: the three-month correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index now stands at 0.78 – one of the highest levels since mid-2022.
This convergence makes a lasting dissociation between crypto and U.S. stocks less likely in the event of worsening geopolitical or economic conditions. Meanwhile, some stocks related to the crypto ecosystem are also benefiting from the context: Circle (CRCL), the issuer of the recently listed USDC stablecoin, saw its stock rise by 10% on Monday and shows +86% over a month. This surge is attributed to both the rise in oil (which boosts its revenues through interest rates) and a technical phenomenon related to short sellers caught off guard before the quarterly results were published.
Why it matters
The Iran/U.S. sequence reminds us that institutional liquidity can cushion – or even reverse – extreme episodes in the crypto market today very interconnected with Wall Street. Recent figures show that in March, only U.S. bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1 billion in net inflows, even as volatility was at its peak. However, one unknown remains: if the conflict were to drag on or if a new wave of risk aversion were to hit all asset classes simultaneously, nothing guarantees that this support would remain unwavering.
To watch
Donald Trump's statements on Monday evening regarding a "very soon" resolution of the Iran/U.S. conflict remain to be confirmed; if an official announcement of the end of the conflict occurs, the volatility observed in bitcoin, which rose above $70,000 on Tuesday morning after dipping to $65,000 the previous weekend, could immediately calm down.