๐จ THE FED IS KEEPING MARKETS ON EDGE! ๐ฅ๐
Fresh data from CME FedWatch shows that March is almost guaranteed to be a pause. The market is basically convinced the Fed isnโt touching rates yet.
๐ด Only 2.7% chance of a -25 bps rate cut in March.
๐ A massive 97.3% probability that rates stay exactly where they are.
In other words, traders are saying: โNot yet.โ โณ
But the real story starts a little laterโฆ ๐
๐ฅ APRIL:
Odds of the first -25 bps cumulative cut rise to 11.5%.
Still, 88.3% probability the Fed holds steady.
๐ -50 bps?
Basically fantasy โ only 0.3% chance.
๐ฅ BUT JUNEโฆ THATโS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING!
Thereโs already about a 33% probability we finally see at least a -25 bps cut.
Thatโs the first real signal the market is preparing for a policy pivot from the Federal Reserve.
๐ Smart money is quietly positioning.
๐ The market is slowly pricing in the first Fed pivot.
โก The timeline looks like this:
โข March โ full pause ๐ค
โข April โ first hints ๐
โข June โ fireworks could begin ๐
And once the Federal Reserve finally starts cutting ratesโฆ
risk assets could absolutely explode upward. ๐๐
๐ฌ What do you think?
Will the Fed cut rates by June, or will they drag it out even longer?
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