With the macroeconomic and geopolitical risks still enveloping the market, I believe this is a period when investors need to be particularly cautious with Bitcoin.
Looking back at previous cycles, we will see very deep corrections after $BTC reaching a peak.
In 2018, Bitcoin dropped from the 19,000 USD range by over 81%. In the 2022 cycle, the price also plummeted from 69,000 USD and lost about 77% of its value. This shows that strong corrections are not an exception, but have almost become a familiar part of BTC's cyclical behavior.
At the present time, I am taking the assumed peak of 126,000 USD to build the scenario.
If history continues to repeat itself according to the old model, a decline of about 75% could completely bring Bitcoin back to the 40,000 USD range.
Of course, no one can assert that the market will follow the past exactly. But as the global context remains very unstable, from monetary policy to geopolitical tensions, preparing for a bad scenario is still more necessary than just hoping for an upward trend.
I am still closely monitoring this structure.
