Looking back at previous cycles of Bitcoin, the 200-week EMA has always been an extremely important technical milestone for assessing the long-term bottom of the market.
In the 2018 cycle, BTC hit a bottom approximately 24% lower than the 200W EMA. By the 2022 cycle, this deviation was even greater as Bitcoin plunged about 40% below the 200-week EMA.
This shows that when the market enters an extreme panic phase, prices not only return to the 200W EMA but can also drop significantly below it before forming a true bottom.
At the current time, BTC's 200-week EMA is around 64,644 USD. If we continue to use historical data to build possible scenarios, a 25% drop below the 200W EMA would bring Bitcoin to around 49,000 USD.
Meanwhile, if the market repeats the deep discount level of 2022, meaning a 40% drop below the 200W EMA, BTC could retreat to around 38,760 USD.
Of course, history does not always repeat itself exactly. But it often provides very notable reference areas, especially during periods of high market volatility and extreme investor sentiment.
Therefore, the range of 49,000 USD to 38,760 USD could be an area to closely monitor if Bitcoin enters a stronger correction phase in the near future.
